PSAM14 - Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
|
Program Book - Schedule - Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday - Friday - SEARCH PAPERS KEY:  -Paper;  -Presentation |
| P03 | Plenary Session | |
| Risk of Models | ||
| Ali Mosleh | ||
| Director, The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, UCLA | ||
| W01 | New Measures for HRA | |
| 225 | Performance Shaping Factors as Operator Performance Measures for Validation and the Need for Robust Usability in Human Reliability Analysis |
|
| Torrey J. Mortenson and Ronald L. Boring | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA | ||
| 39 | Toward a Novel Situation Assessment (SA) Measure |
|
| Jinkyun Park, Yochan Kim, and Wondea Jung | ||
| Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Republic of Korea | ||
| 204 | Real-time SVM Classification for Drowsiness Detection Using Eye Aspect Ratio |
|
| Caio B. Souto Maior, Márcio C. Moura, João M. M. de Santana, Lucas M. do Nascimento, July B. Macedo, Isis D. Lins (a) and Enrique L. Droguett (b) | ||
| a) Center for Risk Analysis and Environmental Modeling, Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil, b) Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile | ||
| 386 | Drowsiness Detection Using Electroencephalography Signals: A Deep Learning Based Model |
|
| Luis Guarda, Nicolás Astorga, Enrique López Droguett (a), Marcio Moura (b), Marcelo Ramos (c) | ||
| a) Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, b) Production Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil, c) Naval Engineering, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil | ||
| W03 | Site Level (Multi-Unit, Multi-Source) PSA/PRA II | |
| 430 | IAEA Project: Multiunit Probabilistic Safety Assessment |
|
| Ovidiu Coman, Shahen Poghosyan | ||
| International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) | ||
| 424 | Update of the Plant-specific Seismic PRA of NPP Goesgen – Risk Model, Results and Insights |
|
| J.-U. Klügel, A. Nykyforchyn and D. Kancev | ||
| NPP Goesgen, Daeniken, Switzerland | ||
| 333 | Practical Methods for Composing Multi-unit PSA Model |
|
| Woo Sik Jung | ||
| Sejong University, Seoul, Republic of Korea | ||
| W04 | Oil and Gas Industry I | |
| 185 | On the Development of the Blowout Preventer PRA Model |
|
| Jan Swider (a,c), Charley Gallo (b,c), Gregg Walz, and Jim Raney (c) | ||
| a) Cogoto, Inc., Simi Valley, USA, b) The Frontline Group, Houston, USA, c) Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, The Woodlands, USA | ||
| 216 | Probabilistic Model for Internal Uniform/Pitting Corrosion of Gas Pipelines |
|
| Keo Yuan Wu and Ali Mosleh | ||
| The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, Department of Materials Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, USA | ||
| 248 | Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) |
|
| Eric B. Thigpen (a), Roger L. Boyer, Michael A. Stewart (b) | ||
| a) SAIC, Houston, Texas, b) NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas | ||
| W05 | Risk Assessment Methods III | |
| 206 | What Have We Done Lately? The Current Status of the SAPHIRE Risk Analysis Software |
|
| S. Ted Wood, James K. Knudsen, and Kellie J. Kvarfordt | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, United States | ||
| 263 | Feedback on the Use Of Risk Metrics for Level 2 PSAs |
|
| Guillaume Kioseyian, Yves Guigueno, Emmanuel Raimond | ||
| IRSN, BP 17, Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92262, France | ||
| 264 | OECD WGRISK – Recently Ongoing and Potential Future International Risk-related Activities |
|
| Marina Roewekamp (a), Kwang-Il Ahn (b), Yolande Akl (c), Attila Bareith (d), Vinh Dang (e), Jeanne-Marie Lanore (f), Markus Porthin (g), Gerhard Schoen (h), Sung Min Shin (b) | ||
| a) Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Köln, Germany, b) Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon, Republic of Korea, c) Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC), Ottawa, ONT, Canada, d) NUBIKI, Budapest, Hungary, e) Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Villigen, Switzerland, f) Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Fontenay-Aux-Roses, France, g) VTT, Espoo, Finland, h) Eidgenoessisches Nuklearsicherheitsinspektorat (ENSI), Brugg, Switzerland | ||
| 269 | On the Calculation of Unit Trip Frequency |
|
| James C. Lin | ||
| ABSG Consulting Inc., Irvine, USA | ||
| W06 | Water and Land Transportation III | |
| 291 | Stochastic Programming Decision for Inland Container Liner Route Stowage Planning with Uncertain Container Weight |
|
| Jun Li, Yu Zhanga, Sanyou Ji (a), Jie Ma (b) | ||
| a) School of Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China, b) School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China | ||
| 327 | Optimal Allocation of Emergency Resources for Safety Production in Container Ports |
|
| Ning Chen, Wan Yue, Xiangyu Chen, Jing Ma | ||
| Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China | ||
| 332 | System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the International Transportation of Spent Nuclear Fuel |
|
| Adam Williams, Douglas Osborn, and Elena Kalinina | ||
| Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA | ||
| 334 | Comparison of Maritime Safety Management Modes and Measures for Main Inland Waterways in China, US, and EU |
|
| Ma Minglu (a), Wu Jing (b,a) | ||
| a) China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China, b) North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China | ||
| W07 | Risk Informed Applications III | |
| 324 | Practical Elimination - Experiences for Units in Use, in Construction and in Design |
|
| I. Niemelä, M. Marjamäki and N. Lahtinen | ||
| STUK, Helsinki, Finland | ||
| 325 | NPP Failure Analyses in Finland |
|
| Pia Humalajoki and Ilkka Niemelä | ||
| STUK - Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki, Finland | ||
| 326 | Frequency of Early Release Requiring Protective Actions for the Public at Loviisa VVER-440 NPP |
|
| Taisto Laato, Kalle E. Jänkälä | ||
| Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Espoo, Finland | ||
| 356 | 2018 Status of "Requirements for Low Power and Shutdown Probabilistic Risk Assessment", Low Power and Shutdown PRA Standard |
|
| Donald J. Wakefield | ||
| ABSG Consulting Inc., Irvine, USA | ||
| W11 | Dynamic HRA | |
| 267 | A Method for Modeling Human Behavior as a Dynamic Process in the Context of External and Internal Hazards |
|
| Joerg Peschke (a), Marina Roewekamp (b) | ||
| a) GRS, Garching, Germany, b) GRS, Cologne, Germany | ||
| 292 | Functional Requirement Analysis for Severe Accident Management Support System Using Multilevel Flow Modeling |
|
| Sungheon Lee and Jonghyun Kim | ||
| Department of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju, Republic of Korea | ||
| 230 | Aggregation of Autocalculated Human Error Probabilities from Tasks to Human Failure Events in a Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Implementation |
|
| Ronald L. Boring (a), Martin Rasmussen (b), Thomas A. Ulrich and Nancy J. Lybeck (a) | ||
| a) Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA, b) NTNU Social Research, Trondheim, Norway | ||
| 88 | Risk-informed Context-based Human Reliability Assessment Method |
|
| Gueorgui Petkov | ||
| Dovre Group Plc, Olkiluoto, Finland | ||
| W12 | Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety III | |
| 346 | On the Reliability of Experts’ Assessments for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Risk of Loss Prediction: Are Optimists better than Pessimists? |
|
| Mario P. Brito and Yujia Chang | ||
| University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom | ||
| 340 | Concept Development for a Test Rig and Analysis of the Experiments for Standardized Testing of Shape Memory Alloys |
|
| Marcin Hinz, Alexander Czechowicz (b), Dominik Brueggemann (a), Peter Dueltgen (b), and Stefan Bracke (a) | ||
| a) University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany, b) Forschungsgemeinschaft Werkzeuge und Werkstoffe e.V. (FGW), Remscheid, Germany | ||
| 210 | Performance of Empirical Bayes Estimation Techniques Used in Probabilistic Risk Assessment on Failure Data collected in U.S NRC Reactor Operating Experience Database |
|
| Andrei Gribok, Vivek Agarwal, and Vaibhav Yadav | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, MS 3818, Idaho Falls, ID/td> | ||
| 299 | Commentary on Use of Model-Augmented Data Analytics for Improved Operational Efficiency of Nuclear Power Plants |
|
| Katrina Groth (a) and Michelle Bensi (b) | ||
| a) UMD, Department of Mechanical Engineering, College Park, MD, USA, b) UMD, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Park, MD, USA | ||
| W13 | Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis II | |
| 49 | Minimal-Dispersion and Maximum-Likelihood Predictors with a Linear Staircase Structure |
|
| Luis G. Crespo, Sean P. Kenny, and Daniel P. Giesy | ||
| Dynamic Systems and Controls Branch, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA | ||
| 56 | Moment-Matching Predictor Models with a Linear Staircase Structure |
|
| Luis G. Crespo, Sean P. Kenny, and Daniel P. Giesy | ||
| Dynamic Systems and Controls Branch, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA | ||
| 102 | Sensitivity Strategy Supporting the Estimate of Extremely Low Probabilities |
|
| Cédric J. Sallaberry, Robert E. Kurth | ||
| Engineering Mechanics Corporation of Columbus (Emc2) Columbus, OH, USA | ||
| W14 | Internal Hazards PSA/PRA II | |
| 70 | Internal Hazards PSA/PRA II |
|
| Gurgen Kanetsyan (a), Armen Amirjanyan, and Zoltan Kovacs (b) | ||
| a) Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, Yerevan, Armenia, b) RELKO Ltd., Bratislava, Slovak Republic | ||
| 320 | Estimation of Fire Frequencies in Low Power and Shutdown Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment |
|
| Tae-Wook Kang, Dong-Kyu, Myung-Ro Kim, Jae-Gab Kim | ||
| KEPCO E&C, Gim-Cheon, Republic of Korea | ||
| 376 | Analysis of Possible Aging Trends in the Estimation of Piping System Failure Rates for Internal Flooding PRA |
|
| B.O.Y. Lydell (a), K.N. Fleming (b), and J-F. Roy (c) | ||
| a) Sigma-Phase Inc., Vail, AZ, USA, b) KNF Consulting Services LLC, Spokane, WA, USA, c) Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA | ||
| W15 | External Hazard PSA/PRA III | |
| 146 | A Level 1 Fire PRA on PGSFR |
|
| Kilyoo Kim, Sanghoon Han, KwiLim Lee | ||
| Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejon, Korea | ||
| 153 | External Event Evaluations for the Design Phase PRA of Hanhikivi 1 |
|
| Juho Helander | ||
| Fennovoima, Helsinki, Finland | ||
| 237 | Probabilistic Seismic Safety Assessment Concept and Application for Seismic Isolated NPP structures Considering a Clearance to Hard Stop |
|
| Min Kyu Kim (a), Jung Han Kim (b) | ||
| a) Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea, b) Pusan National University, Pusan, Korea | ||
| W16 | Consequence Modeling and Management I | |
| 306 | Application of Resilience Metrics to Nuclear Accident Consequence Assessment |
|
| Kampanart Silva and Wasin Vechgama | ||
| Thailand Institute of Nuclear Technology (Public Organization), Nakhon Nayok, Thailand | ||
| 401 | Open Comprehensive Nuclear Events Database |
|
| Spencer Wheatley, Wolfgang Kröger, Lan Chen, and Didier Sornette | ||
| ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland | ||
| 128 | A Sensitivity Study on Effective Protection Measures for Consequence Analysis |
|
| Sunghyun Park, Seunghyun Jang , Dohyun Lima and Moosung Jae | ||
| Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea | ||
| W17 | Nuclear Industry II | |
| 190 | Evaluation of Operation Strategy of Passive and Active Safety Systems during SBLOCA |
|
| Sang Hee Kang, Sun Heo, Sang Won Lee and Hyun Gook Kang | ||
| Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd, 70,1312 Beongil, Yuseoung-Daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, Republic of Korea | ||
| 358 | Sodium Valve Performance in the NaSCoRD Database |
|
| Matthew R. Denman, Zach Stuart, and Zachary K. Jankovsky | ||
| Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA | ||
| 366 | Preliminary Study of Automated Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant Event Reports Based on Natural Language Processing Techniques |
|
| Yunfei Zhao, Xiaoxu Diao, and Carol Smidts | ||
| Nuclear Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, USA | ||
| 383 | Application of a Method to Estimate Risk in Advanced Nuclear Reactors: A Case Study on the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment |
|
| Brandon Chisholm, Steve Krahn (a), Amir Afzali (b), and Eric Harvey (c) | ||
| a) Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA, b) Southern Company Services, Birmingham, AL, USA, c) Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA, USA | ||
| W21 | Organizational Factors and Safety Culture | |
| 109 | Barriers to Proactive Population Relocation in Preparation for Coastal Flooding |
|
| Vicki M. Bier | ||
| University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA | ||
| 182 | Mapping Methodical Change in Safety Culture |
|
| Kaupo Viitanen (a), Teemu Reiman (b), Carl Rollenhagen (c), and Nadezhda Gotcheva (d) | ||
| a) VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland, b) Lilikoi Consulting, Lohja, Finland, c) Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden and Vattenfall AB, Stockholm, Sweden, d) VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Tampere, Finland | ||
| 194 | Safety Culture Assurance in the Supply Chain of a NPP Construction Project |
|
| Teemu Reiman (a) and Kaupo Viitanen (b) | ||
| a) Fennovoima Oy, Helsinki, Finland, b) VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland | ||
| W22 | Prognostics & System Health Management II | |
| 301 | Fusing More Frequent and Accurate Structural Damage Information from One Location to Assess Damage at another Location with Less Information |
|
| Roohollah Heidary, Katrina M. Groth, and Mohammad Modarres | ||
| Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Lab, Center for Risk and Reliability, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD | ||
| 348 | A Significance of Condition-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Data-At-Scale: A Case Study (Presentation Only) |
|
| Vaibhav Yadav, Andrei Gribok, Curtis Smith | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, USA | ||
| 413 | A PHM Architecture Based on Hybrid of Model and Data for Electronic Products |
|
| Jiamin Liu, Weiwei Hu，and Wenjin Zhang | ||
| School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China | ||
| 427 | Reliability-based Approach to the Assessment of Hydrate Formation Probability in Deep-sea Wet-gas Pipelines |
|
| Chaoyu Ruan, Zhiqiang Hou, Xin Lu (a), Bohui Shi (b) | ||
| a) China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China, b) Technology National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety, China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing China | ||
| W23 | Dynamic PSA/PRA III | |
| 228 | Integrating Classical PRA Models Into Dynamic PRA |
|
| D. Mandelli, C. Smitha, and A. Alfonsi | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls (ID), USA | ||
| 193 | Convergence of Varied Surrogate Models for Seismic Dynamic PRA/PSA |
|
| Brian Cohn (a), Jieun Hur (b), Richard Denning, Tunc Aldemir (a), Halil Sezen (b) | ||
| a) Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University Columbus, USA, b) Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, The Ohio State University Columbus, USA | ||
| 203 | Introduction and Demonstration of the I&AB Quantification Method as Implemented with Risk Spectrum PSA |
|
| Ola Bäckström (a), Marc Bouissou (b), Rory Gamble, Pavel Krčál, Johan Sörman and Wei Wang (a) | ||
| a) Lloyd’s Register, Stockholm, Sweden, b) EDF, Paris, France | ||
| 207 | Modelling Component Failure Rates Utilizing Sensor-Based Degradation Data |
|
| Vaibhav Yadav, Vivek Agarwal, Andrei V. Gribok, and Curtis L. Smith | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID, USA | ||
| W24 | Risk and Hazard Analysis III | |
| 123 | Studying Parameters for Changing the Initial Particle Arrangements of Distinct Element Analysis in Earthquake Response Based on Slope Analysis |
|
| Taiki Yoshida, Masato Nakajima, and Hitoshi Tochigi | ||
| Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan | ||
| 150 | Smart Grids: Challenges of Processing Heterogeneous Data for Risk Assessment |
|
| Michael Pacevicius (a,b), Davide Roverso (a), Pierluigi Salvo Rossi (c) and Nicola Paltrinieri (b) | ||
| a) eSmart Systems, Halden, Norway, b) Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology NTNU, Trondheim, Norway, c) Kongsberg Digital, Trondheim, Norway/td> | ||
| 157 | Study on Volcanic Ash Fall Hazard and Road Network Disruption Risk due to Eruption of Fuji Volcano |
|
| Kazuaki Torisawa (a) and Harumi Yashiro (b) | ||
| a) Kanto Gakuin University, Yokohama, Japan, b) National Defense Academy, Yokosuka, Japan | ||
| 432 | The Impact of the Number of Experts on Prediction Accuracy |
|
| Ali Mosleh (a), Ellis Feldman (b) | ||
| a) The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences UCLA, USA, b) Self, Maryland, USA | ||
| W25 | Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis III | |
| 233 | State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses Project: Sequoyah Uncertainty Analysis Methods and Insights |
|
| S. Tina Ghosh (a), and Doug Osborn, Nathan Bixler, Kyle Ross, Dusty Brooks (b) | ||
| a) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, USA, b) Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA | ||
| 75 | Sampling Size Issue in PRA Uncertainty Analysis |
|
| Chunrui Deng | ||
| Nuclear Power Institute of China, Chengdu, China | ||
| 141 | Uncertainty Analysis for Input Parameters of Electrical Cabinet Fire Simulation by Coupling Latin Hypercube Sampling and CFAST |
|
| Wanhong Wang (a), Dahuan Zhu (b), Hui Bao (c), Yun Guo, Changhong Peng (a) | ||
| a) School of Nuclear Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China, b) Science and Technology on Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory, Nuclear Power Institute of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, China, c) Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Auhui, China | ||
| W26 | Water and Land Transportation IV | |
| 337 | Determination of the Storage Number of LPG Tank Container Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis |
|
| Qing Xia, Jian Guo, Haiqi Tang and Hualing Wu | ||
| China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China | ||
| 410 | Research on Application of Holographic Navigation Marks in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River |
|
| Geng Jiezhea, Hu Yuchang, Jiang Lili, Han Chao | ||
| China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China | ||
| 362 | Discussion on Container Dangerous Goods Stockpile Management Based on Quantitative Risk Assessment |
|
| Zhijun Chen, Yuan Gao (a), Hong Fan (b), Qing Xia, Haiqi Tang, Yafei Zhou (a) | ||
| a) China Waterborne Transport Institute, b) Beijing Transport Safety and Health Technical Consultation Institute | ||
| 422 | Construction of Safety Risk Management Platform for Storage Tank Concentration Zone in the Port Area |
|
| Yuchang Hu, Liansheng Xu, Tiansheng Xie, Fengyun Chen, Lili Jiang, Baoqing Zhou | ||
| China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China | ||
| W27 | Resilience Engineering | |
| 10 | A Comparative Study of Risk and Resilience and Their Affiliation in Maritime Safety Research |
|
| Tengfei Wang (a,b,c), Yang Wang (a,b), Shanshan Fu (a,b,d) and Bing Wu (a,b) | ||
| a) Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei, China, b) National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan Hubei, China, c) School of Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei, China, and d) College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China | ||
| 172 | The Model of Resilience in Situation: Its Contribution to the Crisis Management Analysis and Improvement |
|
| P. Le Bot, C. De la Garza, Q. Baudard | ||
| EDF R&D, Palaiseau, France | ||
| 330 | Building Critical Infrastructure Resilience – Cross-Sectoral Comparison of Vital Operational Tasks and Practices |
|
| Miltos Kyriakidis (a), Vinh N. Dang, and Stefan Hirschberg (b) | ||
| a) ETH Zurich, Future Resilient Systems, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, b) Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland | ||
| 385 | Improving Community Resilience through Post-Disaster Temporary Housing Optimization |
|
| Daniel V. Perrucci and Hiba Baroud | ||
| Vanderbilt University, Department of Civil Engineering, Nashville, USA | ||
| WG | Wednesday Gala | |
| Did the US Nonresponse to Piper Alpha Lead Directly to Deepwater Horizon? | ||
| Rogerl L. McCarthy | ||
| Senior Fellow, The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, UCLA | ||