PSAM14 - Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
Monday, September 17, 2018
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Program Book - Schedule - Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday - Friday - SEARCH PAPERS KEY:  -Paper;  -Presentation |
| M00 | Plenary Session | |
| The Challenges (and Opportunities) Facing The Risk Sciences |
||
| B. John Garrick | ||
| B. John Garrick Institute for Risk Sciences, UCLA | ||
| M02 | Maintenance Modelling and Optimization | |
| 31 | Dynamic Sequential Decision Making for Missions and Maintenances Scheduling for a Deteriorating Vehicle |
|
| Elodie Robert (a,b), Christophe Berenguer (a), Keomany Bouvard, Hoceane Tedie (b), and Romain Lesobre (c) | ||
| a) Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP**, GIPSA-lab, F-38000 Grenoble, France, b) Volvo Group Trucks Technology, 69800 Saint-Priest, France, c) ARQUUS, 78284 Guyancourt, France | ||
| 192 | A Methodology for Railway Track Maintenance Modelling Using Plausible Petri Nets |
|
| Manuel Chiachio (a,b), Juan Chiachio, Darren Prescott, John Andrews (a) | ||
| a) Resilience Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, (UK), b) Dept. of Structural Mechanics & Hydraulics Engineering, University of Granada, Granada, (Spain) | ||
| 256 | Probabilistic Maintenance Optimization for Fatigue-critical Components with Constraint in Repair Access and Logistics |
|
| Guang Zou (a,b), Kian Banisoleiman (a), and Arturo González (b) | ||
| a) Lloyd’s Register Group Limited, Southampton, UK, b) University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland | ||
| M03 | Reliability Analysis I | |
| 7 | New Components Reliability Demonstration for Subsea Factory |
|
| A.Di Padova, F.Tallone (a), G.Cassetti, M.Piccini (b) | ||
| a) Saipem S.p.A. - Onshore E&C Plant and Floaters Division, Fano, Italy, b) RAMS&E, Torino, Italy | ||
| 30 | Modeling the Effect of Air Temperature and Pressure on the Reliability of a Passive Containment Cooling System |
|
| Yu Yu (a), Francesco Di Maio (b), Enrico Zio (b,c), Bin Wang, Shengfei Wang, Zhangpeng Guo, Xuefeng Lyu, And Fenglei Niu (a) | ||
| a) School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Safety Technology for Nuclear Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China, b) Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy, c) Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, European Foundation for New Energy – EDF, Ecole Centrale de Paris and Supelec, Paris, France | ||
| 32 | Development of Software Test-based Reliability Assessment Method for Nuclear Power Plant Safety-critical Software |
|
| Sang Hun Lee (a), Seung Jun Lee (b), Jinkyun Park (c), Eun-chan Lee (d), and Hyun Gook Kang (a) | ||
| a) Department of Mechanical Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), Troy, NY, USA, b) School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, Republic of Korea, c) Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon, Republic of Korea, d) Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Gyeongsangbuk-do, Republic of Korea | ||
| 74 | System Reliability Analysis and Probabilistic Safety Assessment to Support the Design of a New Containment Cooling System for Severe Accident Management at NPP Paks |
|
| Tamas Siklossy, Attila Bareith, David Hollo, Zoltan Karsa, Gabor Lajtha, Jenő Nigicser, Peter Siklossy | ||
| NUBIKI Nuclear Safety Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary | ||
| M04 | Risk and Hazard Analysis I | |
| 23 | Assessing Combinations of Hazards in a Probabilistic Safety Analysis |
|
| Halbert Taekema, and Hans Brinkman | ||
| NRG, Arnhem, The Netherlands | ||
| 27 | Modelling of Failures of Multiple Redundant Trains of the Electrical Power Supply System of NPPs in PSA |
|
| B. Brück, G. Gänßmantel, A. Kreuser, C. Müller, E. Piljugin, M. Utschick, and J. C. Stiller | ||
| Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Köln, Germany | ||
| 64 | Assessment of Rockfall Hazard Induced by Earthquake for Important Facility |
|
| I.Yoshdia, Y.Kasuga (a), M.Sato, H.Nakase (b), and S.Nakamura (c) | ||
| a) Tokyo City University, Tokyo, Japan, b) Tokyo Electric Power Services Co.,Ltd, Tokyo, Japan, c) Nihon University, Koriyama, Japan | ||
| 17 | A Tool to Support Improved Outage Risk Management |
|
| Shawn St. Germain and Jaques Hugo | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA | ||
| M05 | Risk Assessment Methods I | |
| 12 | A Bayesian Solution to Incompleteness in Probabilistic Risk Assessment |
|
| Chris Everett (a), Homayoon Dezfuli (b) | ||
| a) ISL, New York, NY, USA, b) NASA, Washington, DC, USA | ||
| 59 | Adapting Traditional Logic Modeling Techniques to Address Cyberattack |
|
| R. Youngblood and K. Le Blan | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho | ||
| 62 | Pathology-Informed Approach in Vulnerability
Assessment Methods |
|
| Polinpapilinho F. Katina (a,b,c), Adrian V. Gheorghe (b) and Charles B. Keating (a,b) | ||
| a) National Centers for System of Systems Engineering, Norfolk, Virginia, USA, b) Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA, c) Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Worldwide Campus | ||
| 403 | Risk Assessment Methods for Comparative Assessment of Options for Decommissioning of Subsea |
|
| Luiz Fernando Oliveira*, Joaquim Domingues, Mariana Bardy, Thábata Maciel, and Silvia Schaffel | ||
| DNV GL, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil | ||
| M06 | Water and Land Transportation I | |
| 50 | Risk Analysis of Ship Foundering Using the Hybrid Causal Logic Methodology |
|
| Kai Zhang, Di Zhang, Cun-long Fan, Ming-yang Zhang (a,b) and Ali Mosleh (c) | ||
| a) Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Wuhan, P.R. China, b) National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan, P.R. China, c) The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences at UCLA, L.A., USA | ||
| 120 | A Game-Theoretic Method to Efficiently Assess the
Vulnerability of a Dynamic Transportation Network |
|
| Venkateswaran Shekar, Lance Fiondella (a), Samrat Chatterjee, and Mahantesh Halappanavar (b) | ||
| a) University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA, b) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA | ||
| 186 | Producing Effective Maintenance Strategies to Control Railway Risk |
|
| Claudia Fecarotti and John Andrews | ||
| Resilience Engineering Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK | ||
| 152 | Risk Simulation Analysis of the Vehicle Velocity in Reduced Visibility Conditions at Bridge-Tunnel Transition Sections |
|
| Dianliang Xiao (a), Yujia Tian (b), and Yong Fang (c) | ||
| a) Safety and Emergency Research Center, China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing, China, b) School of Highway, Chang’an University, Xi’an, China, c) The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, China | ||
| M07 | Risk Informed Applications I | |
| 21 | Development of Approach to Establishment of Risk Informed Accident Management and Management Class in Severe Accident |
|
| Shinya Kamata (a), Nobuyuki Ueda (b) | ||
| a) Japan Nuclear Safety Institute, Tokyo, Japan, b) Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, Japan | ||
| 79 | Generic Safety Issue 191: Risk Informed Application at South Texas Project |
|
| Mary Anne Billings, Kristin Kaspar (a), and Ernest John Lowry Kee (b) | ||
| a) STP Nuclear Operating Company, Wadsworth, USA, b) University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, USA | ||
| 137 | Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Cyber Security of a Nuclear Power Plant |
|
| Jong Woo Park, Seung Jun Lee | ||
| Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, Korea | ||
| 37 | Surveillance Frequency Control Program Implementing
Insights |
|
| Zhiping Li (a,b), Mary Anne Billings (b) | ||
| a) Ameren Missouri, Fulton, USA, b) STP Nuclear Operating Company, Wadsworth, USA | ||
| M11 | Risk Perception and Communication | |
| 63 | The Dynamics of Risk Perception for Soft Target
Terrorism |
|
| Matt Baucum, Richard John (a), Marcus Mayorga(b,c), Paul Slovicbc, William Burns(b), Kent Portney, & Jeryl Mumpower (d) | ||
| a) University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, U.S.A., b) Decision Research, Eugene, OR, U.S.A., c) University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, U.S.A., d) Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, U.S.A. | ||
| 359 | Risk Analysis of Taiwan Food Import from Japan
after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident |
|
| Tsu-Mu Kao | ||
| Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Taiwan | ||
| 429 | The MIT Symposium on Realizing the Value of Nuclear
Energy, 26 and 27 March 2018 |
|
| Michael W. Golay | ||
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA | ||
| 116 | Recognition of Risk Information --- Adaptation of
J. Bertin's Ordinal Matrix for Social Communication |
|
| Keiichi Ishida | ||
| Hosei University / Zurich Insurance company, Tokyo, Japan | ||
| M12 | Prognostics and System Health Management I | |
| 47 | Reliability-Based Regression Model for Complex
Systems Considering Environmental Uncertainties |
|
| Amin Moniri-Morad, Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad, Hamid Aghababaei (a), Javad Sattarvand (b) | ||
| a) Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran, b) University of Nevada Reno, Reno, USA | ||
| 112 | A Comprehensive Sensor Placement Determination in
Condition Monitoring Process Using Combined Fault Detection, Fault Diagnosis
and Risk Indexes |
|
| Farzin Salehpour-Oskouei (a), Mohammad Pourgol -Mohammad (b) | ||
| a) Department of Mechanical Engineering, Shabestar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shabestar, Iran, b) Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| 161 | On the Application of Machine Learning Techniques
in Condition Monitoring Systems of Complex Machines |
|
| Marcin Hinz, Dominik Brueggemann, and Stefan Bracke | ||
| University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany | ||
| 139 | Prognostics using Particle filter for Steam
Generator Tube Rupture in Nuclear Power Plants |
|
| Gibeom Kim (a), Hyeonmin Kim (b), and Gyunyoung Heo (a) | ||
| a) Kyung Hee University, b) Nuclear ICT research division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Republic of Korea | ||
| M13 | Oil and Gas Industry | |
| 118 | Pressure Vessel Fitness-for-Service Evaluation
Based on API579 and API581 Standards |
|
| Ramon Sandim Espíndola Gomes, Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza | ||
| University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil | ||
| 361 | Use of Simplified Risk Assessment Methodology in
the Process Industry |
|
| Mardy Kazarians, Kirk Busby | ||
| Kazarians & Associates, Inc., Glendale,
USA |
||
| 260 | Identification of the Main Contributors to the
Security of Supply in a Gas Transmission Network |
|
| Vytis Kopustinskas, Pavel Praks | ||
| European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Directorate C for Energy, Transport and Climate, Ispra, Italy | ||
| 285 | Dragged anchors interaction scenarios: detailed
frequency analysis for Pipeline Design |
|
| A. Di Padova, C. Zuliani, and F. Tallone | ||
| Saipem S.p.A. – Onshore E&C Plant and Floaters Division, Fano, Italy | ||
| M14 | Industrial Safety | |
| 15 | Agile Practices When Developing Safety Systems
|
|
| Thor Myklebust, Narve Lyngby (a), and Tor Stålhane (b) | ||
| a) SINTEF Digital, Trondheim, Norway, c) NTNU, Trondheim, Norway | ||
| 270 | Analysis on Safety Defect of Port Dangerous Goods
Enterprise |
|
| Zhiqiang Hou, Xiaoyu Wang, and Yongrui Wen | ||
| China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China | ||
| 214 | Multi-Sectioned Predictive Model of Cable
Insulation under Reaction- and Diffusion-Controlled Degradation |
|
| Yuan-Shang Chang and Ali Mosleh | ||
| B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, and Department of Materials Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), USA | ||
| M15 | External Hazard PSA/PRA I | |
| 6 | Fragility Evaluation with Aleatory and Epistemic
Uncertainty against Fault Displacement for Reactor Buildings |
|
| Hirokazu Tsuji (a), Minoru Kanechika, Yoshinori Mihara, and Kenshiro Ishiki (b) | ||
| a) Japan Nuclear Safety Institute, Tokyo, Japan, b) Kajima Corporation, Tokyo, Japan | ||
| 35 | Loss of Offsite Power Frequency Estimates Due to
External Events at a Finnish Nuclear Power Plant |
|
| Mikael Biese | ||
| Fennovoima Oy, Helsinki, Finland | ||
| 66 | Computation of Annual Strike Probability of a
Wind-borne Tumbling Missile using TOMAXI |
|
| Yuzuru Eguchi, Soichiro Sugimoto, Yasuo Hattori, Takahiro Murakami and Hiromaru Hirakuchi | ||
| Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, JAPAN | ||
| 104 | Coupling Large-Scale and Detailed Site Flooding
Simulations |
|
| Niels Montanari, Ramprasad Sampath (a), Donna Calhoun (b), Steven Prescott, Curtis Smith (c) | ||
| a) Centroid LAB, Inc., Mar Vista, CA, USA, b) Boise State University, Boise, ID, USA, c) Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID, USA | ||
| M16 | Aeronautics and Aerospace I | |
| 20 | Identification of Safety Critical Scenarios for
Airlines using Machine Learning in Filter Trees |
|
| Lukas Höhndorf and Florian Holzapfel | ||
| Institute of Flight System Dynamics, Technical University of Munich, Garching, German | ||
| 244 | Experience Gained from Developing a PRA During the
Design Phase of NASA Human Exploration Missions |
|
| Diana L. DeMott (a), Roger L. Boyer, Mark Bigler (b), Courtenay B. Clifford, and C. Joseph Kahn (a) | ||
| a) SAIC, Houston, Texas, USA, b) NASA, Houston, Texas, USA | ||
| 277 | Modeling In-Space Aborts for NASA Human Exploration
Missions |
|
| Mark A. Bigler | ||
| NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, USA | ||
| M17 | Special Session: Overview & Progress in MUPRA | |
| 38 | A Study for Identifying Multi-Unit Initiating Event
and Estimating Frequency |
|
| Seungwoo Lee, Ar Ryum Kim, Namchul Cho, Sokchul Kim, Hyowon Kim, and Dohyoung Kim | ||
| Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety(KINS), Daejeon, Korea | ||
| 124 | An Emergency Response Study during Multi-Unit
Accidents |
|
| Wonjong Song, Hoyoung Shin, and Moosung Jae | ||
| Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, 04763, Korea | ||
| 125 | A Consideration of the Single Release Location for
the Multi-Unit Accidents |
|
| Yein Seo, Hyunae Park, Byeong-Mun Ahn, and Moosung Jae | ||
| Department of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea | ||
| 113 | A Study of Multi-Unit Seismic Probabilistic Risk
Assessment |
|
| Taotao Zhoua, Mohammad Modarres (a), and Enrique López Droguett (a,b) | ||
| a) Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, b) Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile | ||
| M21 | HRA for Digital Interfaces | |
| 235 | HRA Data for Performance Shaping Factors Reflecting
Digital MCR |
|
| Sun Yeong Choi, Yochan Kim, and Jinkyun Park | ||
| Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Rep. of Korea | ||
| 72 | Some insights for assessing diagnosis error
probabilities of operators in advanced MCRs |
|
| Ar Ryum Kim, Seung Woo Lee, Namcul Cho, Ji Tae Kim, Dohyoung Kim, and Sok Chul Kim | ||
| Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon, Republic of Korea | ||
| 227 | Expanding GOMS-HRA from Analog to Digital
Human-Machine Interfaces |
|
| Thomas A. Ulrich and Ronald L. Boring | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA | ||
| M22 | Structural Reliability Analysis Methods | |
| 82 | Comparison of Non-Standard Simulation Methods for
Performing Extremely Low Probability Assessments |
|
| Robert E. Kurth, Cédric J. Sallaberry | ||
| Engineering Mechanics Corporation of Columbus (Emc2) Columbus, OH, USA | ||
| 178 | Thermodynamic Entropy Generation Model for Metal
Fatigue Failure |
|
| Hossein Salimi, Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad, Mojtaba Yazdani | ||
| Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran | ||
| 103 | Efficient Sampling Strategies to Estimate Extremely
Low Probabilities |
|
| Cédric J. Sallaberry, Robert E. Kurth | ||
| Engineering Mechanics Corporation of Columbus (Emc2) Columbus, OH, USA | ||
| 381 | A Case Study on Influence of Subgrade Slope
Blasting on Existing Bridge Safety |
|
| Haoran Song and Dianliang Xiao | ||
| China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing, China | ||
| M23 | Dynamic PSA/PRA I | |
| 48 | Case Study of Major Accident to Demonstrate the
Possibility of Prediction of Conditions for Accidents |
|
| Tiantian Zhu, Stein Haugen (a), Yiliu Liu, Kim Hyungju (b) | ||
| a) Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway, b) Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway | ||
| 54 | Addressing Critical Dependencies in the
Probabilistic Performance Assessments of Multi-Purpose Systems with PyCATSHOO
|
|
| Hassane Chraibi, Dominique Vasseur, Tu Duong Le Duy And Mickaël Hassanaly | ||
| EDF, Paris Saclay Lab - PERICLES - Palaiseau, France | ||
| 85 | Mitigation Coverage Evaluation of Passive Systems
Based on Causality Estimation Using Multi-Level Flow Model |
|
| In Seop Jeon, Junyung Kim, Robby Christian, Hyun Gook Kang | ||
| Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, USA | ||
| 76 | EMRALD, Dynamic PRA for the Traditional Modeler
|
|
| Steven Prescott, Curtis Smith, and Leng Vang | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA | ||
| M24 | Internal Hazards PSA/PRA I | |
| 61 | Application of Fire PSA in Defining System
Reliability Criteria: Detection and Suppression Systems in I&C Electrical
Panel Room |
|
| Marcos Coelho Maturana (a,b), Luciano Lucas Bruno (a), and Marcelo Ramos Martins (b) | ||
| a) CTMSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil, b)LABRISCO/USP, Sao Paulo, Brazil | ||
| 92 | Insights from Internal Fire PSA of UK ABWR in
Generic Design Phase |
|
| Yuki Ishiwatari, Daichi Shiota (a), and Paul Guymer (b) | ||
| a) Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy, Ltd., Hitachi, Japan, b) Jacobsen Analytics Ltd, Congleton, United Kingdom | ||
| 100 | Analysis of Turbine Missile & Turbine-Generator
Overspeed Protection System Failure Probability at NPPs: A case study from
PSA perspective |
|
| Duško Kančev, Stefan Heussen, Jens-Uwe Klügel, Thomas Kozlik, Pere Drinovac | ||
| NPP Goesgen-Daeniken AG, Kraftwerkstrasse CH-4658 Daeniken, Switzerland | ||
| 160 | Monte Carlo Simulation of NUREG/CR 6850 Appendix L
Model for Main Control Board Fires and Resulting Insights |
|
| Paul Boneham, Paul Guymer, Mike Wright | ||
| Jacobsen Analytics Ltd, Congleton, United Kingdom | ||
| M25 | Accident Analysis and Modeling I | |
| 164 | Qualitative PRA Insights from Operational Events
|
|
| Nathan Siu, Ian Gifford, Zeechung Wang, Meredith Carr, and Joseph Kanney | ||
| U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, USA | ||
| 215 | MELCOR2.2/SNAP Analysis of Oxidation Response
during Spent Fuel Pool Quenching |
|
| Wei-Yuan Cheng, Yu Chiang (a), Jong-Rong Wang (b), Shao-Wen Chen (a), Chunkuan Shih (b) | ||
| a) Institute Of Nuclear Engineering And Science, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, b) Nuclear And New Energy Education And Research Foundation, Hsinchu | ||
| 42 | The methodology of Plant Damage State and
Containment Event Tree development in the Low Power Shutdown Probabilistic
Safety Assessment Level 2 using T/H analysis code |
|
| Jae Gab Kim, Myung Ro Kim, Bae Hyuk Kwon | ||
| KEPCO-E&C, Integrated Engineering Department, Korea | ||
| 370 | Containment Isolation System Analysis and its
Contribution to Level 2 PSA Results in Doel 3 Unit |
|
| Marius Lontos, Stanislas Mitaillé, And Shizhen Yu, Jérémy Bulle | ||
| TRACTEBEL ENGIE, Brussels, Belgium | ||
| M26 | Mathematical Methods in Reliability & Safety I | |
| 67 | Improved Bayesian Update Method for Components
Failure Rates |
|
| Ali Ayoub (a), Valerio Ariu and Olivier Nusbaumer (b) | ||
| a) ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Nuclear Energy Systems, Zurich, Switzerland, b) Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt, Department Support Safety & Engineering, Leibstadt, Switzerland | ||
| 282 | Large Satellite Bus Reliability |
|
| Teri Hamlin and Bruce Reistle | ||
| NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, USA | ||
| 406 | A Fault Prediction Approach Based on Bayesian
Network for System |
|
| Tianyu Si, Weiwei Hu, Yuna Liu, and Jiamin Liu | ||
| School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China | ||
| M27 | Special Session: Global and Catastrophic Risks | |