PSAM14 - Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
|
Program Book - Schedule - Monday - Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday - Friday - SEARCH PAPERS KEY:  -Paper;  -Presentation |
| P02 | Plenary Session | |
| Assuring Mission Success for Planetary Space Missions |
||
| Dr. John Casani | ||
| Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL), Retired | ||
| T01 | Special Session: HRA data analysis I | |
| 29 | SACADA Data for HEP Estimates |
|
| Yung Hsien James Chang, Carmen Franklin | ||
| U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC, USA | ||
| 60 | Analyses Methods and Pilot Applications of SACADA Database |
|
| Mohamad Ali Azarm (a), Inn Seock Kim (b), Clifford Marks, and Faramarz Azarm (a) | ||
| a) Innovative Engineering and Safety Solutions, Germantown, MD, USA, b) ISSA Technology Inc., Germantown, MD, USA | ||
| 78 | Methodology for Supporting the Determination of Human Error Probabilities from Simulator Sourced Data |
|
| Pamela F. Nelson (a), C.R. Grantom P.E. (b), and David Quintanar-Gago (a) | ||
| a) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Ingeniería, Departamento de Sistemas Energéticos, Mexico City, Mexico, b) CRG LLC, Huffman, Texas, USA | ||
| 412 | A framework for Using SACADA to Enhance the Qualitative and Quantitative Basis of HRA |
|
| Katrina M. Groth | ||
| Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Lab, Center for Risk and Reliability, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD | ||
| T02 | Reliability Analysis II | |
| 136 | Application of Reliability Analysis in Preliminary Design Stage of Digital I&C System |
|
| Wenjie Qin (a), Xuhong He (b), Xiufeng Tian, Dejun Du (c) | ||
| a) Lloyd’s Register Consulting – Energy Inc., Shanghai, China, b) Lloyd’s Register Consulting AB, Stockholm, Sweden, c) China Nuclear Power Engineering Co., Ltd., Beijing, China | ||
| 145 | Reliability Modeling of Phased Mission Multi-State Systems via a Scenario Inference Method |
|
| Weiyang Men, Ying Chen, Yingyi Li, and Ze Wang | ||
| Beihang University, Beijing, China | ||
| 241 | Reliability Analyses of Digital I&C Systems within the Verification and Validation Process |
|
| Mariana Jockenhövel-Barttfeld, Stefan Karg (a), Christian Hessler (b) and Herve Bruneliere (c) | ||
| a) Framatome GmbH, Erlangen, Germany, b) AREVA GmbH, Erlangen, Germany, c) Framatome SAS, Paris, France | ||
| T03 | Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis I | |
| 16 | Application of Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design to Reduce Parameter Uncertainty in the Fracture Boundary of a Fuel Cladding Tube Under LOCA Conditions |
|
| Takafumi Narukawa (a,b), Akira Yamaguchi, Sunghyon Jang (a), and Masaki Amaya (b) | ||
| a) The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, b) Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki, Japan | ||
| 22 | A Conceptual Comparative Study of Flex Strategies to Cope with Extended Station Blackout (SBO) |
|
| Hak Kyu Lim | ||
| KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan, Republic of Korea | ||
| 36 | Sensitivity Analysis for the Evaluation of Failure Effects on an I&C Test System |
|
| Christian Müller, Ewgenij Piljugin, Jörg Peschke, Manuela Jopen, Dagmar Sommer | ||
| Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Germany | ||
| T04 | Maritime and Offshore Technology I | |
| 86 | Probabilistic Decision Support for Offshore Wind Operations: A Bayesian Network Approach to Include the Dependence of the Installation Activities |
|
| Georgios Leontaris (a), Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles (b), and A.R.M. (Rogier) Wolfert (a) | ||
| a) Integral Design and Management, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands, b) Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands | ||
| 98 | Reducing Risk in Aquaculture Through Autonomous Underwater Operations |
|
| Ingrid B. Utne, Ingrid Schjølberg, Stian Sandøy, Xue Yang (a), and Ingunn M. Holmen (b) | ||
| a) NTNU Department of Marine Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway, b) SINTEF Ocean, 7465 Trondheim, Norway | ||
| 177 | Study of Ship Piloting Risk Aversion Based on Human Reliability Analysis |
|
| Wei Hong-Bin | ||
| China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China | ||
| T05 | Risk Assessment Methods II | |
| 143 | Risk Assessment Study of Loss Profit for Integrated Maintenance Policy Based on Power Generation for a Wind Turbine |
|
| Maryem Bouzoubaa, Zied Hajej, and Nidhal Rezg | ||
| LGIPM, UFR-MIM, University of Lorraine, Metz, France | ||
| 149 | Leaving Mission Times Backstage and Taking Repair into Account in Long Term Scenarios |
|
| Anders Olsson | ||
| Lloyd's Register, Malmoe, Sweden | ||
| 151 | RASTEP – A Novel Tool for Nuclear Accident Diagnosis and Source Term Prediction based on PSA and Bayesian Belief Networks |
|
| Francesco Di Dedda (a), Anders Olsson (b), Joakim Klug and Anders Riber Marklund (c) | ||
| a) Lloyd’s Register, Gothenburg, Sweden, b) Lloyd’s Register, Malmoe, Sweden, c) Lloyd’s Register, Sundbyberg, Sweden | ||
| 165 | Dynamic Modelling of Severe Accident Management for CANDU Reactors in Probabilistic Safety Assessment |
|
| Alexander V. Trifanov | ||
| Kinectrics, Toronto, Ontario, Canada | ||
| T06 | Water and Land Transportation II | |
| 279 | A Collision Risk-Based Ship Domain Method Approach to Model the Virtual Force Field |
|
| Tengfei Wang (a,b,c), Xinping Yana (b), Yang Wang and Qing Wu (a,b,c) | ||
| Tengfei Wang (a,b,c), Xinping Yana (b), Yang Wang and Qing Wu (a,b,c) | ||
| 287 | Trend and Hotspot Analysis of Waterway Transportation Safety Based on Bibliometrics |
|
| Wang Guobo, Han Chao, Xu Liansheng (a), Wu Jing (b,a) | ||
| a) China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China, b) North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China | ||
| 288 | Risk Assessment of Dangerous Goods Areas in Ports |
|
| Wu Jing (a,b), Chen Fengyun, Hu Yuchang, Wang Guobo, Xu Liansheng (b), Mao Xianling (c) | ||
| a) North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China, b) China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China, c) Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China | ||
| 290 | A Case of Quantitative Risk Assessment of Dangerous Goods Container Yard in Chinese Port |
|
| Zhijun Chen, Hong Fan, Yuan Gao , Qing Xia , Haiqi Tang, Yafei Zhou | ||
| China Waterborne Transport Institute, Beijing, China | ||
| T07 | Panel Session: Risk Communication with Mid-Level Decision Makers | |
| T07-1 | Risk Communication |
|
| Greg Krueger | ||
| NEI | ||
| T07-2 | Risk Management & Communication |
|
| Sammy Kayali | ||
| Jet Propultion Lab | ||
| T07-3 | Risk Communication |
|
| Shahen Poghosyan | ||
| IAEA, Department of Nuclear Safety and Security | ||
| T07-4 | Risk Communication with Mid-Level Decision Makers - Challenges and Lessons Learned |
|
| Sunil Weerakkody | ||
| US Nuclear Regulatory Commission | ||
| T11 | Special Session: HRA data analysis II | |
| 57 | Using Microworlds to Support Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis |
|
| Thomas A. Ulrich, Ronald L. Boring, and Diego Mandelli | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA | ||
| 183 | Informing HRA by Empirical Data, Halden Reactor Project Lessons Learned and Future Direction |
|
| Andreas Bye | ||
| OECD Halden Reactor Project, IFE, Halden, Norway | ||
| 187 | Attempt to Predict Human Failure Rate in Different Industry Sectors Using Data from Major Accidents and Bayesian Networks |
|
| C. Morais (a,b), R. Moura (b,a), M. Beer (c,d) and E. Patelli (a) | ||
| a) University Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom, b) National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), Brazil, c) Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany, d) School of Civil Engineering & Shanghai Institute of Disaster Prevention and Relief, Tongji University, China | ||
| 391 | Use of IDHEAS General Methodology to Incorporate Human Performance Data for Estimation of Human Error Probabilities |
|
| Jing Xing and Y. James Chang | ||
| U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC, USA | ||
| T12 | Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety II | |
| 300 | Comparison of MCUB and MCS BDD Fault Tree Solution Algorithms using Leibstadt Nuclear Power Plant Model |
|
| Pavol Zvoncek and Olivier Nusbaumer | ||
| Leibstadt Nuclear Power Plant, Leibstadt, Switzerland | ||
| 312 | Predictive Model on the Degradation of the Electrical Resistance of Cable Insulation |
|
| Yuan-Shang Chang and Ali Mosleh | ||
| B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, and Department of Materials Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), USA | ||
| 313 | Predictive Model on the Reliability of the Insulation Made from Special Heat-Resistant Polyvinyl Chloride |
|
| Yuan-Shang Chang, Yizhen Zhang, and Ali Mosleh | ||
| B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, and Department of Materials Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), USA | ||
| 25 | Safety Assessments of Nuclear Power Plants I&C Systems Architecture |
|
| Hervé Brunelière, Pierre Lacaille, Jean-Yves Brandelet (a), and Mariana Jockenhoevel-Barttfeld (b) | ||
| a) Framatome, Paris La Défense, France, b) Framatome, Erlangen, Germany | ||
| T13 | Site Level (Multi-Unit, Multi-Source) PSA/PRA I | |
| 147 | Framatome’s lessons learned on Multi-Unit PSA |
|
| Jean-Yves Brandelet, Hervé Brunelière, and Pierre Lacaille | ||
| Framatome, Courbevoie, France | ||
| 179 | SITRON - Site Risk Assessment Approach Developed for Nordic Countries |
|
| Ola Bäckström (a), Erik Cederhorn (b), Xuhong He (a), Jan-Erik Holmberg (b), Tero Tyrväinen (c) | ||
| a) Lloyd’s Register, Stockholm, Sweden, b) Risk Pilot AB, Espoo, Finland, c) VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd, Espoo, Finland | ||
| 180 | Multi-Unit Dependency Modeling Based on Reported Japanese Nuclear Power Plant Incidents |
|
| Yuki Nakano, Satoshi Takeda, Takanori Kitada (a), Taotao Zhou, Mohammad Modarres (b) | ||
| a) Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita-shi, Osaka, Japan, b) Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA | ||
| 212 | Framework for Modeling Ground Motion Variability at a Nuclear Power Plant Site for Use in a Seismic Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment |
|
| Jonathan DeJesus Segarra (a), Michelle Bensi (b), Mohammad Modarres (a) | ||
| a) Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, b) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD USA | ||
| T14 | Risk and Hazard Analysis II | |
| 94 | Risk Effectiveness Analysis of FLEX using Plant Specific PRA |
|
| Chun-Chang Chao, Po-Jung Chiu, Chen-Che Hsu, Ching-Tien Huang | ||
| Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Taoyuan, Taiwan | ||
| 99 | A Review of Hazard Identification Techniques for Autonomous Operations in Norwegian Aquaculture |
|
| Xue Yang, Ingrid B. Utne, and Christoph A. Thieme | ||
| Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Marine Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway | ||
| 101 | Post-Fukushima PSA Modelling: Best-estimate, Plant-Specific Considerations vs. Conservative Requirements |
|
| Jens-Uwe Klügel, Dusko Kancev, Stefan Heussen, Pere Drinovac, Thomas Kozlik | ||
| NPP Goesgen-Daeniken AG, Kraftwerkstrasse CH-4658 Daeniken, Switzerland | ||
| 122 | The Study of Spent Fuel Pool Risk at Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan |
|
| Yicheng Tian ,Chun-Chang Chao, Chen-Che Hsua, Po-Jung Chiu, Yu-Ting Chiou and Tzu-Shiu Lin | ||
| Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Taoyuan, Taiwan | ||
| T15 | External Hazard PSA/PRA II | |
| 108 | A Method for Inclusion Of Uncertainties in Seismic PSA |
|
| Lavinia Raganelli (a,b), Keith Ardron (b) | ||
| a) Corporate Risk Associates, London, UK, b) Imperial College, London, UK | ||
| 115 | Assessing and Modelling Buildings Failures caused by External Events at Ringhals NPP |
|
| Erik Sparre (a), Carl Sunde (b), and Cilla Andersson (c) | ||
| a) Risk Pilot, Malmo, Sweden, b) Risk Pilot, Gothenburg, Sweden, c) Ringhals, Varobacka, Sweden | ||
| 138 | Screening of External Hazards in Belgium |
|
| Bogdan Golovchuk and Filip Van Opstal | ||
| Tractebel ENGIE, Brussels, Belgium | ||
| 117 | Oil and Gas Pipeline Third Party Damage (TPD) - A New Way to Model External Hazard Failure |
|
| Christopher Jackson, Ali Mosleh | ||
| B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, United States | ||
| T16/td> | Dependence Modeling and Analysis | |
| 28 | Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors |
|
| Zhegang Ma, John Schroeder, and Curtis Smith | ||
| Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA | ||
| 114 | A Physics-of-Failure Approach for Common Cause Failures Subject to Age-Related Degradation |
|
| Taotao Zhou (a), Enrique López Droguett (a,b), and Mohammad Modarres (a) | ||
| a) Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, b) Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile | ||
| 246 | Recent Insights from the International Common Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) Project |
|
| Benjamin Brück (a), Gunnar Johanson (b) , Michelle Gonzalez (c), Jan Stiller (a) | ||
| a) Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit(GRS) gGmbH, Cologne, GERMANY, b) ÅF Industry, Stockholm, SWEDEN, c) United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, United States | ||
| T17 | Risk Informed Applications II | |
| 162 | Framatome’s lessons learned on Risk-Informed Applications |
|
| Hervé Brunelière, Jean-Yves Brandelet (a), Heiko Kollasko (b), Pierre Lacaille (a) and Jari Pesonen (c) | ||
| a) Framatome, Paris, France, b) Framatome, Erlangen, Germany, c) TVO, Olkiluoto, Finland | ||
| 257 | Level 1 PRA Considering Optimization of Safety Systems for the iB1350 |
|
| Go Tanaka, Yuji Komori, Keiji Matsumoto and Takashi Sato | ||
| Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions Co., Yokohama, Japan | ||
| 307 | Review of Risk-Informed Approach and Challenges in its Application for Floating Nuclear Power Plant |
|
| Wang, Jiaqun, Wang Qianglong (a), Yang Linping (b), Qiu Jinrong, Yao Shiwei (a), Wu Jie (c) | ||
| a) Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan, China, b) Chongqing Huayu Electric Group CO., LTD., Chongqing, China, c) Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, China | ||
| T21 | SESSION TITLE | |
| T21-1 | Special Panel Session Intro |
|
| Kathrina Groth | ||
| Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland | ||
| T21-2 | Special Panel Session on the future of HRA data |
|
| Andreas Bye | ||
| OECD Halden Reactor Project, Institute for energy technology (IFE) | ||
| T21-3 | Panel “What’s Next for HRA?” |
|
| Jeffrey Julius | ||
| Jensen Hughes | ||
| T21-4 | Special panel session on the future of HRA data |
|
| Jinkyun Park | ||
| Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute | ||
| T22 | Health and Medicine | |
| 174 | Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: A Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool |
|
| Jerry Myers (a), Yamil Garcia (b), John Arellano (c), Lynn Boley (b), Debra Goodenow (a), Eric Kerstmand, Matthew Koslovsky (b), David Reyes (d), Lynn Sail (e), Wafa Taiym (b), Millennia Young (e) | ||
| a) National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH, USA, b) KBRwyle, Houston, TX, USA, c) MEIT, Houston, TX, USA, d) University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA, e) National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, USA | ||
| 408 | A Bayesian Belief Network Model for Risk of Vascular Catheter-Associated Infection |
|
| Reza Kazemi (a) , Ali Mosleh (b) and Meghan Dierks (c) | ||
| a) University of Maryland, College Park, currently at USFDA, b) University of Maryland, College Park, currently at UCLA, c) Harvard Medical school | ||
| 409 | A Bayesian Belief Network Model for Risk of Pressure Ulcer |
|
| Reza Kazemi (a) , Ali Mosleh (b) and Meghan Dierks (c) | ||
| a) University of Maryland, College Park, currently at USFDA, b) University of Maryland, College Park, currently at UCLA, c) Harvard Medical school | ||
| T23 | Dynamic PSA/PRA II | |
| 87 | Code Surrogate Development for Dynamic PRA Using Anisotropic Taylor Kriging Methodology |
|
| Robby Christian, Hyun Gook Kang | ||
| Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, USA | ||
| 106 | Development of an Online Operator Tool to Support Real-Time Emergency Planning Based on the Use of Dynamic Event Trees and Deep Learning |
|
| Ji Hyun Lee, Tunc Aldemir, Alper Yilmaz and Richard Denning | ||
| The Ohio State University, Columbus, US | ||
| 121 | Pattern Identification of Dynamic Event Tree Scenarios with Clustering |
|
| Junyung Kim and Hyun Gook Kang | ||
| Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, USA | ||
| 126 | Severe Accident Scenario Uncertainty Analysis using the Dynamic Event Tree Method |
|
| Xiaoyu Zheng, Hitoshi Tamaki, Jun Ishikawa, Tomoyuki Sugiyama, and Yu Maruyama | ||
| Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki, Japan | ||
| T25 | Accident Analysis and Modeling II | |
| 266 | Source Term Prediction Software in Case of Severe Accidents: FaSTPro for Shutdown States |
|
| Michael Hage, Michael Kowalik, Sören Johst and Horst Löffler | ||
| GRS, Cologne, Germany | ||
| 296 | Analysis of the Effect of Severe Accident Scenario on the Vessel Lower Head Failure in Nordic BWR using MELCOR code |
|
| Sergey Galushin and Pavel Kudinov | ||
| Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden | ||
| 297 | Sensitivity Analysis of the Vessel Lower Head Failure in Nordic BWR using MELCOR Code |
|
| Sergey Galushin and Pavel Kudinov | ||
| Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden | ||
| 390 | Confirmatory Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis to Support Success Criteria in NRC’s PRA Models |
|
| Suzanne Dennis, Shawn Campbell, Don Helton | ||
| U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, USA | ||
| T26 | Nuclear Industry I | |
| 41 | On the Recent Research Advancements of Cyber Security of Nuclear Power Plants |
|
| Yan-Fu Li, Shou-Zhou Liu | ||
| Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China | ||
| 44 | Review of Probabilistic Safety Assessment as Part of the Periodic Safety Review for NPP Paks |
|
| Attila Bareith | ||
| NUBIKI Nuclear Safety Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary | ||
| 155 | Safety Demonstration – A Strategy for Assessors |
|
| André A. Hauge, Vikash Katta, Peter Karpati (a) and Bjørn Axel Gran (a,b) | ||
| a) Department of Risk, Safety and Security, Institute for Energy Technology, Halden, Norway, b) NTNU, Trondheim, Norway | ||
| 131 | Reliability Analysis of Digital Pressurizer Water Level Control System in NPP based on Boolean Logic Driven Markov Process |
|
| Yi-jing Mao (a), Xi-yu Chen, Shi-liang Zhou (a,b), Tong-yu Xu, Irsa Rasheed (a) | ||
| a) School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China, b) Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Safety Technology for Nuclear Energy, Beijing, China | ||
| T27 | Special Session: Population-based risk stratification in health: the opportunity for risk sciences to influence precision medicine | |
| T27-1 | Introduction |
|
| T27-2 | Risk-Based Screening for Breast Cancer |
|
| Arash Naeim | ||
| Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center | ||
| T27-3 | Sensing At-Risk Patients |
|
| Ramin Ramezani | ||
| Computer Science Dept. & Center for Smart Health, UCLA | ||
| T27-4 | Optimizing imaging-based Lung Cancer Screening |
|
| Alex Bui | ||
| David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA | ||