PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Yochan Kim Co-author(s): Sun Yeong Choi (sychoi@kaeri.re.kr)
Jinkyun Park (kshpjk@kaeri.re.kr)
Jaewhan Kim (jhkim4@kaeri.re.kr)
| Statistical evidence of minimum human error probability for an emergency event from simulation records |
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| Human reliability analysis estimates error probabilities of human operators under given contextual conditions for predicting a probabilistic risk of complex systems. The human error probabilities have been often determined based on the limited operating data and simplified cognitive models; hence, there has been a recognition in the field of HRA that it is necessary to appropriately assign a conservative value to a very low error probability in consideration of various uncertainty factors. For example, EPRI [2010] suggested assigning different minimum values such as 1.0E-04, 1.0E-05, and 1.0E-06 according to the contextual factors by referring to the typical hardware failure probability. Whaley et al. [2011] recommended using 1.0E-5 as a lower bound of HEP with consideration of usefulness in cut-set investigations. However, no objective evidence supporting the reasonableness of the minimum value was not presented. This paper attempts to generate statistical information to determine the minimum error probability bound based on the human error data from the simulation records. The data is generated by observing the licensed crew behaviors in full-scope simulators. This paper provides a basis for the minimum human error probability by estimating the occurrence frequency of human error of a type that has not been analyzed much so far. In this study, we estimated the frequency of equipment operation not prescribed in the procedure during the process of performing tasks according to the procedure. As a result, considering the possibility of recovery, it was predicted that the operator could make a significant human error in the power plant with a probability of 1.0E-05. Even though additional data analysis and verification are essential, this study showed that a piece of statistical evidence for the minimum human error probability can be derived by predicting the human error probability of an unknown type. |
Paper YO82 Preview
Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: Yochan Kim (yochankim@kaeri.re.kr)
Bio: Yochan Kim is working for Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute as a senior researcher. He received a Ph.D. degree in industrial and systems engineering from the Korea Advanced Institute and Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea, in 2011. The main interests include Human Reliability Analysis, data science, and human-computer interaction.
Country: South Korea
Company: Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
Job Title: Senior Researcher
Bio: Yochan Kim is working for Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute as a senior researcher. He received a Ph.D. degree in industrial and systems engineering from the Korea Advanced Institute and Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea, in 2011. The main interests include Human Reliability Analysis, data science, and human-computer interaction.
Country: South Korea
Company: Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
Job Title: Senior Researcher