PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Yusuke Takao Co-author(s): Satoshi Takeda < takeda@see.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp>
Takanori Kitada
| Impact of Correlation between Performance Shaping Factors on Their Multipliers |
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| Human reliability analysis (HRA), which calculates the human error probability (HEP) is important in PRA. SPAR-H is one of the HRA methods and it refers to factors that affect human activities as performance shaping factors (PSFs). SPAR-H considers eight PSFs and each PSF has level and corresponding multipliers. The quantitative correlations among PSFs have been reported, and the multipliers are expected to change by considering these correlations. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the correlation between PSFs of stress and complexity on HEP since a positively large correlation coefficient has been reported for these PSFs. In reevaluating the multipliers considering the correlation, we used the conditional expectation of multivariate normal distribution, assuming that the multipliers follow a normal distribution and that the standard deviation of the coefficients of each PSF is equal. As a result of the evaluation, we found that multipliers of complexity change from about 0.5 times to about 1.9 times by considering correlation, and multipliers of stress decrease by at maximum of 50%. This result indicates that the correlation between PSFs could have a significant impact on HEP. |
Paper Y-233 Preview
Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: Yusuke Takao (y-takao@ne.see.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp)
Bio:
Country: Japan
Company: Osaka University
Job Title: Graduate student
Bio:
Country: Japan
Company: Osaka University
Job Title: Graduate student