PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
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Lead Author: Shota Soga Co-author(s): Eishiro Higo higo3791@criepi.denken.or.jp
Hiromichi Miura h-miura@criepi.denken.or.jp
| Theoretical comparison of models for a seismically induced joint failure probability |
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| An earthquake simultaneously challenges multiple structures, systems, components of nuclear power plants. Seismic probabilistic risk assessment evaluates this phenomenon with a failure condition that a component fails when a seismic response exceeds a component capacity. In literature, there are several models for a seismically induced joint failure probability: a model used in the seismic safety margins research program (Model 1), a model in the SECOM2 (Model 2), and the Reed-McCann procedure (Model 3). We also discuss a model that applies the separation of independent and common variables method to response and capacity (Model 4). In Model 4, common variables among more than two components are explicitly considered. These four methods are analytically compared to clarify their relation. First, it is shown that the first two methods are equivalent by showing their derivations. Next, Model 4 is shown as a limited case of Model 1 by showing that Model 4 results in a multivariate normal distribution with nonnegative correlation coefficients. Finally, Model 3 is shown as a limited case of Model 4 by deriving the failure criterion used in Model 3 from Model 4 by neglecting common variables among more than two components. Thus, we summarize the relation: Model 1 = Model 2 ⊇ Model 4 ⊇ Model 3. Therefore, we recommend Model 1 for a joint failure probability because of its computational efficiency and better applicability. |
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Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: Shota Soga (soga@criepi.denken.or.jp)
Bio: Mr. Shota Soga is a Research Scientist in the Nuclear Risk Research Center (NRRC), the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Japan. He is working on studies for multi-unit seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and advanced modeling aproach for PRA. His most recent focus is on seismically inducedd joint failure probability of multiple components and its uncertainty propagation. His other research interests include advanced numerical algorithm for computing PRA model and advanced common-cause failure analysis. He received the B.S. degree in nuclear engineering from University of Tennessee, Knoxville and the M.S degree in nuclear engineering from North Carolina State University, in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Country: Japan
Company: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Job Title: Research Scientist
Bio: Mr. Shota Soga is a Research Scientist in the Nuclear Risk Research Center (NRRC), the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Japan. He is working on studies for multi-unit seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and advanced modeling aproach for PRA. His most recent focus is on seismically inducedd joint failure probability of multiple components and its uncertainty propagation. His other research interests include advanced numerical algorithm for computing PRA model and advanced common-cause failure analysis. He received the B.S. degree in nuclear engineering from University of Tennessee, Knoxville and the M.S degree in nuclear engineering from North Carolina State University, in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Country: Japan
Company: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry
Job Title: Research Scientist