PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Tarannom Parhizkar Co-author(s): SAEED NOZHATI, snozhati@ucla.edu
ALI MOSLEH, mosleh@ucla.edu
JON ERIC THALMAN, JETg@pge.com
| An Integrated Wildfire Risk Model for Power Grids |
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| Wildfire events have been growing in frequency and intensity in California in recent years. They not only threaten public safety but have recently resulted in billions of dollars in direct and indirect damages for single events. Therefore, an integrated wildfire risk model for risk-informed decision-making is an important problem that warrants immediate attention. This presentation provides an integrated methodology for the assessment and management of risks due to wildfires caused by different drivers including equipment and vegetation failures in electrical distribution lines. The presentation offers a scenario-based approach that is rooted in a fundamental and vastly popular risk theory and forms the basic platform for the integration of techniques and models needed to identify the wildfire risk scenarios and quantify their probabilities. The backbone of the framework is the method of Hybrid Causal Logic (HCL), a multi-layered structure that integrates event sequence diagrams (ESDs), fault trees (FTs), and Bayesian Networks (BNs) and allows for the inclusion of computer simulation models for phenomenological events such as fire spread. As it is the case with nearly all quantitative risk assessments of complex open systems, there are significant uncertainties due to limitations of some critical data and state of knowledge about key phenomena, and uncertainties stemming from needed simplifications and approximations. The proposed methodology covers this important aspect in a formal and systematic way. |