PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Joy Shen Co-author(s): Michelle T Bensi: mbensi@umd.edu
Mohammad Modarres: modarres@umd.edu
| External Flood Fragility Development and Integrating Novel Tools to the XFPRA framework |
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| This presentation explores the development of external flood fragility functions for nuclear power plants. It also explores the stochastic conversion of external flood height to an internal flood height using novel probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools such as Bayesian networks augmented with Monte Carlo simulations. PRAs in the nuclear industry are traditionally performed with event tree and fault tree analyses (ETA/FTA). The challenges to these tools include the binary state assumptions (failed or un-failed), the limitations in modeling dependencies, and the static treatment of time. These challenges are particularly relevant and limiting when modeling external flood risks. For example, components may partially fail, requiring a multi-state failure model. Furthermore, correlations between components may exist due to location, manufacturing, and maintenance. In addition, the effects of a flood event are spatially and temporally dynamic. These challenges prompt an investigation to integrate other tools in the traditional ETA/FTA framework. This presentation describes the initial research activities to explore the development of flooding fragility models and stochastically linking external flooding to internal component fragility, using Bayesian networks augmented with Monte Carlo simulations, addressing the previously mentioned challenges. Future work will include integrating these tools into the ETA/FTA framework and its application to a comprehensive flooding scenario. |
Paper JS148 Preview
Author and Presentation Info
Presentation only, a full paper is not available.
Lead Author Name: Joy Shen (jshen132@umd.edu)
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