PSAM 16 - Paper Overview

PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview

Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.

Lead Author: Josefin Lindström Co-author(s): Jonas Johansson, jonas.johansson@risk.lth.se

Towards Conceptualizing and Modelling Critical Flows
Continuous access to flows of goods and services, such as energy, transport, information, and food, is essential and the basis for functioning modern societies. Hence, they are critical and need to be secured, as highlighted in USA Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-21) and EU Directives (EPCIP, NIS). Mega-trends such as climate change, changing geopolitical environment, hybrid- and cyber threats, globalization of supply chains, and rapid technological advances come with new challenges and emerging threats to securing flows. Given the complexities involved in securing critical flows, the focus should not only be on protection but also resilience. Critical flows are fundamentally enabled and accommodated by critical infrastructures and supply chains of diverse natures. Further, the interconnectedness of infrastructures and leanness of supply chains lead to an increased vulnerability where no single entity has a comprehensive overview and understanding over their interconnected form and function, i.e., their joint structure, connectivity, flow volumes, and spatial and temporal distributions. We argue that there is an added value to the critical infrastructure, supply chain, and security of supply regimes to establish a common flow concept to more holistically study the protection and resilience of societal functionality. Critical flows can take vastly different forms. They can consist of different entities, such as people, goods, energy, or data; they can span different geographical scales, from locally to globally; they can require an array of different physical infrastructures and supply chains. Critical flows are hence of heterogeneous nature, presenting difficulty in establishing a common flow concept and enabling holistic modelling and simulation. We argue that a more aggregated level of abstraction, i.e., flows, will aid as a useful and complementing perspective when studying interdependencies and interconnectedness between physical sectors, infrastructures and supply chains. The aim of the paper is to conceptualize and outline an initial modelling and simulation approach to grasp the nature and behavior of flows and their interdependencies. In this paper, the main contributions are: 1) a conceptualization of critical flows applicable for the understanding and analysis of a wide variety of vital societal flows, focusing on salient properties, 2) the outlining of a generic model for simulation and analysis of interconnected flows, and 3) an illustration of the approach in a Swedish setting with respect to the flows of food, transportation, and energy, by analyzing their interdependent behavior and vulnerabilities. This work is part of a larger research project with the aspiration to contribute to the security and resilience of flows through an enhanced understanding of their interdependencies. Initial conclusions are that the concept of critical flows beneficially integrates and complements existing perspectives and where modelling and simulation approaches that enable this generic perspective are required towards assessing and managing vital societal challenges. Keywords: Critical Flows, Critical Infrastructure, Supply Chain, Modelling, Interdependencies, Security, Resilience Authors and affiliations: Josefin Lindström, Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, Sweden; and Jonas Johansson, Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, Sweden

Towards Conceptualizing and Modelling Critical Flows

Continuous access to flows of goods and services, such as energy, transport, information, and food, is essential and the basis for functioning modern societies. Hence, they are critical and need to be secured, as highlighted in USA Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-21) and EU Directives (EPCIP, NIS). Mega-trends such as climate change, changing geopolitical environment, hybrid- and cyber threats, globalization of supply chains, and rapid technological advances come with new challenges and emerging threats to securing flows. Given the complexities involved in securing critical flows, the focus should not only be on protection but also resilience. Critical flows are fundamentally enabled and accommodated by critical infrastructures and supply chains of diverse natures. Further, the interconnectedness of infrastructures and leanness of supply chains lead to an increased vulnerability where no single entity has a comprehensive overview and understanding over their interconnected form and function, i.e., their joint structure, connectivity, flow volumes, and spatial and temporal distributions. We argue that there is an added value to the critical infrastructure, supply chain, and security of supply regimes to establish a common flow concept to more holistically study the protection and resilience of societal functionality. Critical flows can take vastly different forms. They can consist of different entities, such as people, goods, energy, or data; they can span different geographical scales, from locally to globally; they can require an array of different physical infrastructures and supply chains. Critical flows are hence of heterogeneous nature, presenting difficulty in establishing a common flow concept and enabling holistic modelling and simulation. We argue that a more aggregated level of abstraction, i.e., flows, will aid as a useful and complementing perspective when studying interdependencies and interconnectedness between physical sectors, infrastructures and supply chains. The aim of the paper is to conceptualize and outline an initial modelling and simulation approach to grasp the nature and behavior of flows and their interdependencies. In this paper, the main contributions are: 1) a conceptualization of critical flows applicable for the understanding and analysis of a wide variety of vital societal flows, focusing on salient properties, 2) the outlining of a generic model for simulation and analysis of interconnected flows, and 3) an illustration of the approach in a Swedish setting with respect to the flows of food, transportation, and energy, by analyzing their interdependent behavior and vulnerabilities. This work is part of a larger research project with the aspiration to contribute to the security and resilience of flows through an enhanced understanding of their interdependencies. Initial conclusions are that the concept of critical flows beneficially integrates and complements existing perspectives and where modelling and simulation approaches that enable this generic perspective are required towards assessing and managing vital societal challenges. Keywords: Critical Flows, Critical Infrastructure, Supply Chain, Modelling, Interdependencies, Security, Resilience Authors and affiliations: Josefin Lindström, Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, Sweden; and Jonas Johansson, Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, Sweden

Paper JO134 Preview

Author and Presentation Info

Lead Author Name: Josefin Lindström (josefin.lindstrom@risk.lth.se)

Bio: Josefin is a PhD student in the division of Risk Management and Societal Safety at Lund University's faculty of engineering in Sweden. She holds a BSc. degree in environmental engineering and an MSc. degree in risk management & safety engineering. Her research is on the interdependencies and vulnerabilities of critical societal flows and infrastructures.

Country: Sweden
Company: Lund University
Job Title: PhD Student

PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview

Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.

Paper JO134 Preview

Author and Presentation Info

Download paper JO134.