PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: James Lin
| Analysis of Frequency of Aircraft Impact from Overflights |
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| Evaluation of the frequency of aircraft impact from overflights during the in-flight phase has become more challenging in recent years due to changes in the flight paths (even for itinerary flights) and difficulty in collecting flight frequency data. In present-day aviation, airplanes can fly using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and do not always have to follow the airways. Flight paths are primarily based on the shortest routes between the origin and destination navigated by the GPS. Therefore, the frequency of enroute overflights in the airspace nearby a nuclear facility cannot be just estimated by the air traffic along the nearby airways as specified in NUREG-800, Section 3.5.1.6. All overflights within certain distance from the facility should be considered. Air traffic in the airspace nearby a nuclear facility should be estimated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) records on the flights crossing specific latitude/longitude boundaries, which includes not only aircraft operations into and out of a nearby airport, but also overflights through the same airspace without landing at that airport. This paper will describe the underlying considerations in the NUREG-800 equation used for calculating the overflight impact frequency. It will also discuss in detail how the frequency of aircraft impact from enroute overflights can be analyzed considering the type of FAA data that is available. Three separate methods that have been considered for the evaluation of aircraft impact frequency (i.e., crash density, flight density, and flight hour density methods) will be described. The flight density method is an extension of the method specified in NUREG-800 for assessing the frequency of impact from flights along the nearby airways. The in-flight aircraft impact frequencies can be estimated using the FAA radar data, which is not in the form of statistics that can be readily used for the aircraft impact frequency calculation. These data from the FAA Traffic Flow Management System repository are digitalized points from the radar monitoring of the flight trajectory from airport to airport. The FAA air traffic data is processed to derive the unique overflights nearby a facility, the closest distance between the facility and each unique flight, and the frequency of these flights. In processing the FAA radar data, the closest distance between the facility and each unique flight is used to determine the lateral aircraft impact range based on the model adopted by NUREG-800. For each class of aircraft, its total frequency of crashing into a facility can be estimated by summing the products of in-flight crash rate, effective facility target area, and the inverse of lateral aircraft impact range over all unique flights. This can be calculated for several cases of the maximum closest distance, which is used to determine the appropriate area around the facility for characterizing the aircraft impact hazard. |
Paper JL65 Preview
Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: James Lin (jlin@absconsulting.com)
Bio: Mr. Lin is a senior consultant in the Irvine, California office of ABSG Consulting Inc. He has worked in the area of quantitative risk assessment and risk management for 42 years. Mr. Lin received his master degree in Nuclear Science and Engineering from University of California in Los Angeles. He has authored or co-authored more than 200 technical papers and reports.
Country: United States of America
Company: ABSG Consulting Inc.
Job Title: Director
Bio: Mr. Lin is a senior consultant in the Irvine, California office of ABSG Consulting Inc. He has worked in the area of quantitative risk assessment and risk management for 42 years. Mr. Lin received his master degree in Nuclear Science and Engineering from University of California in Los Angeles. He has authored or co-authored more than 200 technical papers and reports.
Country: United States of America
Company: ABSG Consulting Inc.
Job Title: Director