PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Jan Soedingrekso Co-author(s): Tanja Eraerds tanja.eraerds@grs.de
Martina Kloos martina.kloos@grs.de
Jörg Peschke joerg.peschke@grs.de
Josef Scheuer josef.scheuer@grs.de
| Probabilistic Evaluation of Critical Scenarios with Adaptive Monte-Carlo Simulations Using the Software Tool SUSA |
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| The uncertainties of an accident analysis can be addressed by performing Monte-Carlo simulations within the so-called best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach. By varying the uncertain input parameters and running the respective simulations of a deterministic code, tolerance intervals of the safety relevant simulation result can be calculated using, for instance, the software tool for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, SUSA. However, the analysis of critical scenarios, which are usually rare events, requires a large number of simulations to accurately describe the underlying parameter spaces and to quantify the probability for critical scenarios. By incorporating adaptive sampling methods in the Monte-Carlo simulation, these rare scenarios can be evaluated probabilistically with reasonable computational effort. Three adaptive sampling methods have been implemented in SUSA to determine the parameter space leading to rare critical scenarios and to estimate the probability for these scenarios. The first approach applies a support vector regression metamodel in the frame of a subset simulation. The second approach combines a genetic adaptive sampling algorithm with an ensemble of classification algorithms, and the third approach uses an adaptive Gaussian process. This contribution presents the adaptive sampling approaches implemented in SUSA and their application to a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenario. |
Paper JA104 Preview
Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: Jan Soedingrekso (jan.soedingrekso@grs.de)
Bio: I studied physics at the Technical University of Dortmund in Germany. In addition to my bachelor's and master's degrees, I also did my PhD in Dortmund, which I completed in 2021. My studies focused in the field of astroparticle physics on the uncertainties of particle propagation in Monte Carlo simulations (mainly muons) and their impact on the sensitivity of neutrino telescopes. Since 2021, I have been working as a research scientist at GRS, where I am developing analysis methods for safety analyses of complex technical systems.
Country: Germany
Company: Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH
Job Title: Research Scientist
Bio: I studied physics at the Technical University of Dortmund in Germany. In addition to my bachelor's and master's degrees, I also did my PhD in Dortmund, which I completed in 2021. My studies focused in the field of astroparticle physics on the uncertainties of particle propagation in Monte Carlo simulations (mainly muons) and their impact on the sensitivity of neutrino telescopes. Since 2021, I have been working as a research scientist at GRS, where I am developing analysis methods for safety analyses of complex technical systems.
Country: Germany
Company: Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH
Job Title: Research Scientist