PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
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Lead Author: Ilkka Karanta Co-author(s): Tero Tyrväinen tero.tyrvainen@vtt.fi
| Conservative methods for frequency estimation of combined external events |
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| Initiating event frequency estimates should be conservative so that risk estimates wouldn’t be downplayed, but not too conservative so that they wouldn’t hamper demonstrating the achievement of safety goals. We consider this problem in the case of statistical frequency estimation of combined external events, primarily for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear facilities. There an additional problem is the scarcity of positive instances where each event (e.g. wind and sea level) would exceed design basis within some short time window. It is likely that measurement data at a site or close to it does not contain a single instance of the combined event, and therefore estimates that utilize available data tend to be non-conservative unless this problem with the data is taken into account. Major Bayesian approaches to IE frequency estimation are reviewed. Finnish practical experience in plant PRA is described. Potential approaches to solving the problem are described. Some are based on the utilization of quasi-Bayesian models, and others on the generation of synthetic data. The benefits and drawbacks of these approaches are briefly considered. |
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