PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Curtis Smith
| Observations and Results from a Benchmark on External Events Hazard Frequency and Magnitude Statistical Modelling |
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| The March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant triggered discussions about the natural external events that are low-frequency but high-consequence. To address these issues and determine which events would benefit from international co-operative work, a Nuclear Energy Agency Task Group on Natural External Events (TGNEV) was established. In June 2014, this group reorganised into a Working Group on External Events (WGEV). WGEV is composed of a forum of experts for the exchange of information and experience on external events in member countries, thereby promoting co-operation and maintenance of an effective and efficient network of experts. A recent activity of this group has focused on conducting a benchmark on external events hazard frequency and magnitude statistical modelling. Modelling of these external events is a common practice in hazards and risk assessments found in many countries. Having a valid statistical approach to model these hazards is important. However, current practice indicates a wide variety of approaches being used and an under appreciation of the uncertainties inherent in these types of statistical models. The objective of this activity was to provide a benchmark suitable to explore the application of typical approaches to external hazard representation through a data-informed process. The activity provided two types of benchmarks, one with data and model provided and one with just data provided (a “blind- test”). This paper summarizes the statistical modelling approaches that were submitted for the benchmark and provides observations related to the approaches used. |
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Author and Presentation Info
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Lead Author Name: Curtis Smith (curtis.smith@inl.gov)
Bio: Curtis Smith, Ph.D., is the Director for the Idaho National Laboratory Nuclear Safety and Regulatory Research Division. Prior to taking a leadership role as Division Director, he led several risk-informed activities for DOE, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and NASA. Dr. Smith has been at INL for 31 years and has published over 275 papers, books, and reports on risk and reliability theory and applications. He holds a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT.
Country: United States of America
Company: Idaho National Laboratory
Job Title: Division Director
Bio: Curtis Smith, Ph.D., is the Director for the Idaho National Laboratory Nuclear Safety and Regulatory Research Division. Prior to taking a leadership role as Division Director, he led several risk-informed activities for DOE, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and NASA. Dr. Smith has been at INL for 31 years and has published over 275 papers, books, and reports on risk and reliability theory and applications. He holds a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT.
Country: United States of America
Company: Idaho National Laboratory
Job Title: Division Director