PSAM 16 - Paper Overview

PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview

Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.

Lead Author: Andrew Thompson Co-author(s): Dusty Brooks, dbrooks@sandia.gov Douglas Osborn dosborn@sandia.gov

Risk-Informing Access Delay Timelines
The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has developed a new method to modernize how access delay timelines are developed and utilized in physical security system evaluation. This new method utilizes Bayesian methods to combine subject matter expert (SME) judgement and small performance test datasets in a consistent and defensible way. It will enable a more holistic view of delay performance that provides distributions of task times and task success probabilities to account for tasks that, if failed, would result in failure of the attack. Using the current methods, access delay timelines rely on reported data from tests where possible, and on SME judgement to help fill in any blanks that exist in the testing. This data is generally reported using a single time rather than distributions, or as a triangular distribution centered around the minimum time from the test, with minimum and maximum assumed to be +/- 50% of this mean. However, these assumptions are not always realistic and can result in overly conservative timeline risk. The key driver for considering a change in methods is to provide a more accurate assessment of the true delay times as well as consider the probability of successfully completing a task. Bayesian analysis was used to present timeline estimates in a way that is meaningful for timeline analysis and will allow security professionals to focus on areas that will benefit most from additional attention. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Risk-Informing Access Delay Timelines

The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has developed a new method to modernize how access delay timelines are developed and utilized in physical security system evaluation. This new method utilizes Bayesian methods to combine subject matter expert (SME) judgement and small performance test datasets in a consistent and defensible way. It will enable a more holistic view of delay performance that provides distributions of task times and task success probabilities to account for tasks that, if failed, would result in failure of the attack. Using the current methods, access delay timelines rely on reported data from tests where possible, and on SME judgement to help fill in any blanks that exist in the testing. This data is generally reported using a single time rather than distributions, or as a triangular distribution centered around the minimum time from the test, with minimum and maximum assumed to be +/- 50% of this mean. However, these assumptions are not always realistic and can result in overly conservative timeline risk. The key driver for considering a change in methods is to provide a more accurate assessment of the true delay times as well as consider the probability of successfully completing a task. Bayesian analysis was used to present timeline estimates in a way that is meaningful for timeline analysis and will allow security professionals to focus on areas that will benefit most from additional attention. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

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Lead Author Name: Andrew Thompson (andthom@sandia.gov)

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Company: Sandia National Labs
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PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview

Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.

Paper AN305 Preview

Author and Presentation Info

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