PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.
Lead Author: Alexander Grundler Co-author(s): Martin Dazer, martin.dazer@ima.uni-stuttgart.de
Bernd Bertsche, bernd.bertsche@ima.uni-stuttgart.de
| Efficient Reliability Demonstration using the Probability of Test Success and Bayes Theorem |
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| In order to demonstrate the reliability of a component, the reliability engineer is often faced with multiple challenges. On the one hand the budget for testing is limited and on the other hand, the demonstration needs to be done as quick and with the most precise statistical information possible. To address these challenges, the concept of Probability of Test Success was developed. It enables the objective assessment of tests with regard to their chance of success and thus the ability to directly compare the tests as well as the planning of expenditure and cost estimation. Secondly, a great variety of approaches have been developed which, by means of Bayes' theorem, use available prior knowledge to correct the information obtained from the tests and thus reduce expenditures. However, the combination of the Probability of Test Success and Bayes' Theorem to plan efficient reliability demonstration tests has not been addressed up to now. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to do so. It is analysed how reliability demonstration tests can be planned using the Probability of Test Success (statistical power) as well as the Bayes theorem. The combined use of the two approaches reveals a considerable advantage. Not only is it possible to select the optimal test according to the boundary conditions by means of the prediction of demonstration success. In addition, the integration of prior knowledge by means of Bayes' theorem enables an additional significant reduction of expenditure. The presented approach is capable of planning and assessing failure-based tests as well as any censored and failure-free tests. The procedure is illustrated by way of a case study. The results show that the demonstration of reliability and its necessary test planning benefit greatly from the proposed combination of the two approaches. The most promising test is planned while also being the test with maximum efficiency with regards to cost, time and sample size. |
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Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: Alexander Grundler (alexander.grundler@ima.uni-stuttgart.de)
Bio: Alexander Grundler received the B.Sc. degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany in 2014 and the M.Sc. degree in mechanical engineering from University of Stuttgart in 2017. He is currently the team lead of the reliability engineering department and Ph.D. candidate in the field of reliability engineering at the Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart. His research is concerned with life testing and efficient reliability demonstration of systems using prior knowledge.
Country: Germany
Company: Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart
Job Title: Team Lead Reliability Engineering
Bio: Alexander Grundler received the B.Sc. degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany in 2014 and the M.Sc. degree in mechanical engineering from University of Stuttgart in 2017. He is currently the team lead of the reliability engineering department and Ph.D. candidate in the field of reliability engineering at the Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart. His research is concerned with life testing and efficient reliability demonstration of systems using prior knowledge.
Country: Germany
Company: Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart
Job Title: Team Lead Reliability Engineering