G.E. Apostolakis and J.S.. Wu
University of California, Los Angeles

Contributing Editors

D. Bley, PLG, Inc.
S. Guarro, Aerospace Corp.
V. Ho, PLG, Inc.
R. Mulvihill, PRC, Inc.
D. Orvis, APG, Inc.
N. Sankaran, Unocal Corporation
N. Siu, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
M. Stamatelatos, Scientech, Inc.

001 Risk Based Prioritization (I)

Chair: P. Prassinos, USDOE

Qualitative Safety Analysis of Proposed Material Relocation Options
N.G. Cathey, T.L. Foppe (EC&G)

Risk-Based Methods Applicable to Ranking Conceptual Designs
R.J. Breedeng, J.T. Ringlnad, K. Ortiz (SNL), J.J. Lim (Lim & Orzechowski)

Process Hazards Assessment Using Risk Matrices
D.H. Henneke, J. Phillips (TENERA)

002 Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Chair: R.M. Cooke, Delft U. Technol

Assessing the Risks and Uncertainties due to Incinerator Toxic Air Pollutants Emission
J. Swider, W.E. Kastenberg (UCLA)

Dependability Through Auditing
J.R. Stone, D.I. Blockley (U. Bristol)

Multi-Level Control Against Uncertainties and Failures Consequences
V.N. Efanov, V.G. Krymsky (Ufa St. Aviation Engineering, Russia)

003 Software Dependability (I)

Chair: C. Lavine, The Aerospace Corporation

Risk Assessment and Management of Safety-Critical, Digital Industrial Controls - Present Practices and Future Challenges
W.R. Dunn (USC); M.V. Frank, S.A. Epstein (Safety Factor Assoc.); L. Doty (NASA)

Reliable Process Execution in FMS by Extended Transactions
U. Schmidt (U Stuttgart)

004 Dependent Failures

Chair: M. Haim, Rafael

CCDAT an Automated Tool for Common Cause Failure Data Analysis and Parameter Estimation
F.R. Hubbard (FRH); A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Development of a Data Base of Common Cause Failure Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants
D. Rasmuson (USNRC); A.Mosleh (U.Maryland); F.Marshall, K. Kvarfordt (EG&G)

005 Advances in Human Reliability Analysis

Chair: G.W. Parry, NUS

A Procedure for the Analysis of Errors of Commission in a PSA
G.W. Parry, J. Julius, E. Jorgenson (NUS); A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Human Reliability Analysis for Seismic Events
T.V. Vo, T.M. Mitts (PNL); C.M. van Bujjtenen, E.Wingo (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

Evidence of the Need to Model Errors of Commission in Risk Assessments for Varied Environments
D.I. Gertman, L.N Haney, L.T. Ostrom (INEL)

Application of HRA in the Commonwealth Edison Individual Plant Examinations
L. Soth (Commonwealth Edison)

006 Uncertainties and Sensitivities in Physical and Chemical Phenomenology--Thermal Phenomenon

Chair: N. Ortiz, SNL

Methodology to Evaluate Uncertainty in Thermalhydraulic Code Calculations
F.D' Auria, G.M. Galassi, S. Belsito (U. Pisa); N. Debrecin (U. Zagreb)

Two Methods for Estimating the Probability of Fuel/Coolant Interactions: Applications to Aluminum/Water
J.A. Close, R.L. Moore, L.G. Blackwood (INEL)

Uncertainties in the Characterization of the Thermal Environment of a Solid Rocket Propellant Fire
J.C. Diaz (LLNL)

Probabilistic Estimates of Hanford Waste Tank Failure due to Hydrogen Burns
R.K. Deremer (PLG), D.R. MacFarlane (LANL)

007 Quantitative Risk Assessment and Process Industry Decision Making

Chair. IA. Papazoglou, Inst. Nucl. Technol. & Radiat. Protec.

The Use of Quantitative Risk Assessment as a Decision Making Tool
G. N. Pettitt; B. Harvey, D.R.E. Worthington (DNV Technica)

008 Choosing Among Alternative Programs or Strategies

Chair: H.F. Mart, LANL

Integrated Regional Risk Assessment and Safety Management: The Experience of Switzerland
A.V. Gheorghe (ETH, Switzerland)

WESVA: A Decision Aid for Comparing Warhead Advanced Surety R&D Options
R.V. Homey, A. Sicherman, D.R. Stephens (LLNL)

009 Uncertainty in Offsite Consequence Models for Reactor Accidents

Chair: J.C. Helton, Arizona St. U

Modular Analysis of Radiological Consequence Uncertainties and Sensitivities (MARCUS)
L.F. Restrepo (SNL), F.E. Haskin (U. New Mexico)

Summary of Uncertainty Analysis of Dispersion and Deposition Modules of the MACCS and COSYMA Consequence Codes - A Joint USNRC/CEC Study
F.T. Harper, L.A. Miller, M.L. Young (SNL); L.H.J. Goossens, R.M. Cooke (Delft U. Technol ); S.C. Hora (U. Hawaii); J. Pasler-Sauer (KfK, Germany); C. Lui (USNRC), N. Kelly (CEC Belgium)

A Procedure for Assessing Uncertainty in Models.
M.D. McKay, R.J. Beckman (LANL)

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Early Exposure Results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model
J.C. Helton (Arizona St. U), J.D. Johnson (GRAM); M.D. McKay (IANL); A.W. Shiver, J.L. Sprung (SNL)

010 Computer-based Systems and Plant Models

Chair: P. Kafka, Gesellschaft fur Reaktorsicherheit (GRS)

Use of System Simulation to Support Automated Fault Tree Construction
A. Carpignano (Politecnico Torino, Italy)

Plant Specific PSA Supported and Enhanced by a Computer Based Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA)
H-P. Ralfanz (TUV-Nord)

Identification of Components to Optimize Improvement in System Reliability
L. Painton (Carnegie Mellon U), J. Campbell (SNL)

An Introduction to Dynamic MPLD Model
Y-S. Hu, M. Modarres (U. Maryland)

011 PSA for Dynamic Systems: Modeling Approaches

Chair: M. Marseguerra, Univ. of Milan

A Theoretical Analysis of DYLAM-Type Event Tree Sequences
J. Devooght (U. Libre de Bruxelles); C. Smidts (U. Maryland)

Probabilistic Dynamics: A Numerical Comparison Between a Continuous Event Tree and a DYLAM-Type Event Tree
C. Smidts (U. Maryland); J. Devooght (U. Libre de Bruxelles)

Assessing DYLAM Methodology in the Frame Montecarlo Simulation
G. Cojazzi; P. Vestrucci (CEC- JRC, Ispra)

012 Methods/Data and Applications for Improving Human Reliability in Plant Operations

Chair: G.W. Hannaman, SAIC

Human Reliability Database for In-Plant Application of Industry Data
G.W. Hannaman (SAIC);A. Singh (EPRI)

Risk Management Activities to Address the Impact of Human Errors and Human Error Variability
J.C. Higgins, J.M. O'Hara (BNL)

Generic Event Trees and the Treatment of Dependencies and Non-Procedural Actions in a Low Power and Shutdown Probabilistic Risk Assessment
J. Forester (SAIC); D.W. Whitehead (SNL); J. Darby (S&EA); J. Yakle (SAIC)

013 Nuclear Reactor PSA Applications

Chair: B.O.Y. Lydell, NUS

Application of Petri-Nets-Based Model to Reliability and Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant
G. Petkov (Risk Eng., Bulgaria); S. Doytchinov (Tech. U., Bulgaria)

K Reactor Restart Configuration - Level 1 Internal Events PRA Results (U)
S.P. Tinnes D.S. Cramer, V.E. Logan, S.V. Topp, J.A. Smith, H.A. Ford, R.T. Bailey, M.D. Brandyberry, B.G. Kingery (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

Predictability Versus Availability High Flux Isotope Reactor
L. Merryman (ORNL), E. Ballon, B. Christie (RAPA)

014 PRA Methodology

Chair: J-P. Sursock EPRI

How uncertain We Should be About the Outputs of a PSA: the HMIP Procedure
P. Grindrod (INTERA); S. Watson (Cambridge Decision Analysts)

Development of a Level 2 PSA Approach to Support Regulatory Evaluation of Severe Accident Management (SAM) Strategies
T. Okkonen, I.M. Niemela, J. Sandberg, R.K. Virolainen (STUK, Finland)

015 Decision Policy Management

Chair: R.S. Strait, LLNL

Risk Based Performance Goals and Probabilistic Source Term in Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Activities
D.A. Reny, T.E. Wierman (TENERA)

Managing Uncertainty in Risk Analysis Decisions
W.D. Rowe, K.J. Beierschmitt (Battelle Pantex)

PRA As A Management Tool: Improving the Safety of the Tiles of the Space Shuttle Orbiter
E. Pate-Cornell (Stanford U.); P. Fischbeck (Carnegie Mellon U.)

Reaching End of License - Big Rock Point
J.R. Schepers, G.C. Withrow (Consumers Pwr. Ca)

A Risk Assessment and Management Tool for the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) Building
J.L. LaChance, A. Kolaczkowsg ,A. Crawford, J. Holderness, (SAIC); G. Medford (LANL)

016 Uncertainty in Performance Assessment

Chair: M.G. Marietta, SNL

Uncertainties in Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Risk Assessment
K.E. Petersen (Riso Natl. Lab.)

ManagementSTechnical Assessments on Yucca Mountain
C.P. Gers (USDOE); S.R. Mattson (SAIC)

Risk Assessment of Coordinate Measuring Machine-Based Dimensional Inspection Technology
Y-L. Shen, X. Zhang (George Washington U.)

The Effect of Uncertainties in Dose-Response Data on Risk Management of Air Toxics
J.C. Huang, W.E. Kastenberg (UCLA)

018 Reliability, Models & PSA

Chair: K Inoue, Kyoto Univ.

Identification of System States Based on Multistate Model
K. Nalcashima (Faculty of Engineering, Japan); H. Matznaga (Toyama Prefectural U., Japan)

Safety Substantiation Analysis for Airplane Systems
B. Zilberman (Israel Aircraft Ind.)

Automatlc C onstruction of Markovian Transition Matrices for the Treatment of Large Size Rehabilitv Problems
B. Tombuxses (U. Libre de Bruxelles); B. Arien, D. Lamy (SCK/CEN, Belgium)

Markovian Models for the Reliability Analysis of Multichanneled Protective Systems
P.F. Frutuoso e Melo (COPPE/UFRJ, Brazil); L.F. Oliveira (PRlNCIPIA Ltda. and U. Federal of Bahia, Brazil); R. Youngblood (BNL)

019 Risk Management for Continuous Releases of Airborne Toncs

Chair: W.E. Kastenberg, UCLA

Califomia's Air Toxics "Hot Spots" Law. I. Mechanics of the Law
J.F. Collins, M.A. Marty,, G.V. Alexeeff (Of. Environ. Hlth. Ha. Assmt)

Uncertaintles in the Health Risk Assessment of Fossil-Fueled Electric Power Stations
L.B. Gratt (IWG)

Automated Risk Assessment for California's Air Toxics Hot Spots Act
J.H. Stahmiller (JAYCOR)

020 Applications for Process Opera~donal Safety

Chair: F. Dombek NUS

System-Based Approach to Safety Equipment Classification for a Radiochemical Facility
S.T. Almodovar, C.L. Whalen (Jason Assoc.)

A Probabllistic Risk Analysis of a LPE Laboratory
S. Aruetl (RAFAEL Reliability Ctr., Israel); M. Mor (SCD, Israel)

Hanford High-Level Waste (HLW) Tank Mixer Pump Safe Operating Envelope Reliability Assessment
S.R. Fischer (LANL); J. Clark (Science & Eng. Assoc.)

021 Management of Risk in Chemical Processes

Chair: G.D. Kaiser, SAIC

Risk .Nlanagement for Hazardous Materials within the City of Torrance
J.D. Kulluk (Torrance Fire Dept)

Difficulties in Decision Making without Consideration of Risk
G.D. Kazser (SAIC)

Risk-Based Regulation Setting Goals for Health and Safety
J. Bacon (ESE, UK)

022 Risk Management in DOE (I)

Chair: K Murphy, USDOE

Risk Management at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Research Reactors
G.F Flanagan, MA. Linn, L.D. Proctor, D.H. Cook (ORNL)

Risk Management at LLNL
G.E Cummings, S.R. Strait (LLNL)

Risk Management at Los Alamos National Laboratory
D.G Brooks (Arizona State U), D.W. Stack (LANL)

023 Environmental Consequence Analysis

Chair: KR. O'Kula, Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.

MACCS Usage at Rocky Flats Plant for Consequence Analysis of Postulated Accidents
T.L. Fop~e. V.L. Peterson (EG&G Rocky Flats)

Practical Application of Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Marine Oil-Spills
D.J. Winfield (AECL Research); D. Dickins (D.F. Dickins & Assoc.)

On the Environmental Risk of Methanol Spills and Leaks
P. T. Katsumata W.E. KastenSerg (UCLA)

024 Computerized Monitors and Operator Aids (I)

Chair: A.J. Spurgin, Consultant -x

Object Oriented Plant Models for Off-Line and On-Line Risk Monitoring
A. Poucet (CEC-JRC, Italy); A. Carpignano (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)

Object-Oriented Toolkit for Intelligent Plant Monitoring System: TIPS
T. Ohi, K. Sasaki (Mitsubishi Electric, Japan)

A Computer Aid for Safety Assessment and Configuration Management of Complex Systems Based on PSA Models
P. Kafka, O. Lupas, J. Wu, M. Zimmermann (GRS)

025 PSA for Dynamic Systems: Analysis Techniques

Chair: N.O. Siu, INEL

Improving the Efficiency of Monte Carlo Methods in PSA by Using Neural Networks
M. ,fifarseguerra, E. Zio (Polytechnic of Milan)

Sensltlvitv Analysis Techniques in Reliability Studies
A. Dubi (Ben Gurion U. Israel); A. Gandini (ENEA, Italy)

Valldation of Non-Markov Monte Carlo Calculations of System Reliability
J.D. Lewins, Y. Wu (Cambridge U.)

Varlance Reduction Techniques for Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment
N.O. Siu, D.L. Kelly, JA. Schroeder (INEL)

026 Nuclear Power Safety: Risk Analyses from Engineering and Human Factors Perspectives

Chair: O. Svenson, Stockholm U.

Selt-Reported Human Errors in Control Room Work
L. Jacobsson, O. Svenson (StocJEolm U., Sweden)

Development of an Orientation Based Approach to Evaluation of Process Operators' Expertise
L. Norros, K HukJci (Technical Res. Ctr. Finland)

Declslon NIaking under Uncertainty: A Pilot Study on Exemption from Technical Specifications
K. Porn (Studsvik Eco & Safety, Sweden)

027 Hazard Analysis in the Process Industries

Chair: T. Aldemir, Ohio State U.

Hazara Analysis for Compliance with Process Safety Regulations
M. Kazarians (Kazarians & Assoc.)

Ristox. A Toxic Gas Risk Analysis Program
J.M. Hudson, A. See (ACTA)

Case Studv of A Quantitative Risk Analysis to Compare Process Altematives
J.T. Cranefield, DX. Karydas, PA. Stavrianidis (Factory Mutual Res.); V. Ley (Texas Instr.)

028 Risk Management in Operations

Chair: M. Stamatelatos, Scientech

Assessing the Risk Irnpact of Integrating Surveillance Testing and Maintenance
C.L. Smzth P.G. Ellison, JA. Schroeder (INEL)

Empincal Bayes Estimation of the Average Reliability of Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Diesel Generators to Load-Run Upon Demand
H.F Martz (LANL); L.R. Abramson (USNRC)

Analyses of Reliability Characteristics of Emergency Diesel Generator Population Using Empirical Bayes Methods
W.E. Vesely (SAIC); S.P. Uryas'ev, P.K Samanta (BNL)

An Unavailability Model for Errors Made During Surveillance Testing
T.F. Botz (LANZ)

029 Determining the Adequacy of Deep Technical Knowledge and Quantifying Its Effect on Risk

Chair: D. Okrent, UCLA

Two Proposed Methods for Incorporating Deep Technical Knowledge Using Behaviorally Anchored Rating Scales into Probabilistic Risk Assessments
E.C. 4bbott (ABZ); Y. Xiong, D. Okrent, (UCLA)

Level of Knowledge and Safety
L.J. Reynes (Electrzcite de France)

Deriving Start-Up Task Descriptions from Functional Models
M.V. Larsen, J.K Hansen, P.C. Cacciabue (CEC-JRC, Italy)

030 Uncertainities in Chemical and Physical Phenomenology-ConsequenceAnalyses

Chair: M.L. Brown, AEA Technol.

Internatlonal Assessment of PCA Codes
L. Vevmotin (BNL); C. LUI, S. Acharya, J. Glynn (USNRC)

Quantitative Guidelines for Safe Storage of a Reactive Chemical: Ammonium Perchlorate
S.S. Emerson (Kerr-McGee)

Probabilistic Consequence Assessment of Postulated Accidents in the DefenseWaste Procesvsing Facility Using MACCS2 (U)
J.M. East, KR. O'Kula (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

031 Computerized Monitors and Operator Aids (II)

Chair: L. Norros, VTT Fznland

Evaluation of Computerized Emergency Operating Procedure Systems as an Operator Support in Nuclear Power Plants
P. .Hozeni (Accident Prevention Grp.); A2. Spurgin

DL\IOS: A New Generation of Nuclear Power Plant Process Monitoring Systems
M. De Vlaminck B. Gilliot (Belgatom, Belgium)

Risk Management Insights from the Development and Use of the San Onofre Safety Monitor
T 4. Uorgan (Haliburton NUS); T.G. Hook R. Lee (S. Cal. Edison)

COSMIC Mlodelling with Personal Computers
R. Strong (Safety Analysis Sys.)

032 Methodology

Chair: L.R. Abramson, LAWL

A Dvnamic Goal Tree Approach for Process Safety Management
X. Wang, M.L. Roush (U. Maryland)

Calculating Exact Top Event Probabilities Using z PATREC
A.S fleger, G. Shatnanna (U. New MexicoJ; D. W. Stack D.V. TaUvott (LANL)

Development of the GO-FLOW Reliability Analysis Methodology - Common Cause Failure Analvsis and Uncertainty Analysis
T. .avfatsusks, M. Kobayashi (Ship Res. Inst., Japan)

Malfunctioning Evaluation of Pressure Regulating Installation by Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis
R. Galvagni, 1. Ciarambino (SYECO); N. Piccinini (Politecnico di Torino)

033 Team Skills and Group Processes in Human Reliability

Chair: D. Orvis, Accident Prevention Group

.The Significance of Operator Team Interaction Skills to Nuclear Power Plant Risk
M.S. Hams (PNL)

Root Cause Analysis Methodologies: Trends and Needs
G. CoVa77L L. Pznola (CEC-JRC, Italy)

034 Reliability/Availability/Maintainability Improvement

Chair: S.H. Levinson, B&W Nuct Technol.

Irnproving the Conditional Probability of the Emergency Feedwater System at Arkansas Nuclear One - Unit 2
D. Johnson, J Miller, D. Nilzus (EnterEy); B. Christie (RAPA)

Emergencv l)iesel Generator Conditional Probability Analysis Arkansas Nuclear One - Unit 2
T. Ivy (Enter ESFAS Reliabilitv Analysis to Justify Test Interval Extension
S.H. Levinson R.S. Enzinna (B&W Nucl. TechnoL)

035 Regulation and Legal Issues

Chair: C. Guedes Soares, Tech. U. Lisbon

Reliabihts t:ertification Methodology of Electronic Systems Used for Protection
P 4. Stalnrianidis. D.M. Karydas (Factory Mutual Res.)

Risk Assessment: Overview of Land-Based Tort Liability
J.L. Borrello. MJ. Spansel (Adams and Reese)

Cost-Rist; Factor Development Using the Maxwell Risk Criteria Matrix (MRCM) & theAnalvtica Hierarcy Process (AHP)
D.R Craham (SMC/FMCC)

036 Risk Management in DOE (II)

Chair: T. Eng, USDOE

Environment, Safety and Health Decision Process at a DOE Multipurpose Research Laboratorv
W.R. Casev, M.S. Davis, J.B. Deitz, O. White (BNL)

Risk .VIanagement at Argonne National Laboratory
D J. ff iiL R. D. ff islop (ANL)

Probahilistic Risk Assessment of Manufacturing Activities Within the U.S.Department of Energ)
P. Prassinos, P.D. Dilley (USDOE); P. Carrara (Advanced Sciences)

037 Uncertainties and Sensitivities in Physical and Chemical Phenomenology--Explosions and Combustion

Chair: S. Kaplan

Development of Fast-Running Therrna! and Structural Response Models for Probabilistic Analyses <)fComplex Systems
A.S. Benjamin, N.N. Brown (SNL)

Ihe Ignitlon Temperature of Solid Explosives Exposed to a Fire
J.R. Creighton (LLNL)

Development and Validation of a Vapour Clouds Explosion Blast Model
C. Opschoors A.C. van den Berg, W.P.M. Mercx (TNO Prins Maurits Lab, Netherlands)

Post-Mortem Risk Modeling of the Mexico City Disaster
G..V. Petatt, J.D. Harms, J.L. Woodward (DNV Technica)

038 Risk Assessment - Space and Missile Systems

Chair: S. Guarro, The Aerospace Corporation

An Assessment Methodology for SRB Mission Failure Probability
F. filsuo ,kfA. Azarm (BNL)

The Development of Risk Profiles for Space and Missile Launch Range Safety Decisions
L.L. Philipson (ACTA)

Risk Assessment Framework for the CASSINI Planetary Mission
S. Guarrci (Aerospace Corp.); B. Bream (NASA Lewis)

Risks and Issues in Fire Safety on the Space Station
R. Frzedman (NASA Lewzs)

039 Expert Judgment

Chair: L.HJ. Goossens, Delft U. Technol.

Method of Expert Judgment Applied to Waste Landfill Performance
Ij. Rodic. L.HJ. Goossens (Delft U. Technol.)

The Acute Foxicity of Hazardous Materials and Expert Judgment
LXJ. Goossens, RX. Cooke (Delft U. TechnoL); F. WoudenbergJ P. van der Torn (Munlcipal Health Serv., Rotterdam)

A Latent Variable Model in Uncertainty Analysis
A.M.H. Meeuwissen, R.M. Cooke (Delft U. Technol.)

040 Benefits of Understanding Human Errors in Complex Systems

Chair: J. Wreathall, J. Wreathall & Co.

Some Requlrements for Designing and Managing Reliable Complex Systems
KH. Roberts (UC Berkeley); M. Grabowsh (Rensselaer Polytechnic U.)

Incorporation of Human Factors into Process Hazard Analysis
D.B. McCaffertv, KA. Borows (DNV Technica)

041 Methods for Improved Operations of Nuclear Units

Chair: K Jamali USDOE

The Savannah River Site Component Generic Data Base: Applicable to a Wide Variety of Facilities
C.H Blanton (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.); S. A. Eide (LANL)

Risk Based Regulation Configuration Control for the James A. Fitzpatrick Nuclear Power Plant
CJ. Everlme, M.G. Stamatelatos, F.M. Quinn (SCIEN1ECH)

Application of Risk-Based Methods for Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Systems
S.M. Wong, W.E. Gunther (BNL); J.W. Chung, W.D. Beckner (USNRC)

Assessment of Existing Plant Instrumentation for Severe Accident Management
tJ. Horn, D.E. True (ERIN Eng & Res.); S. Oh (EPRI)

042 Time Dependent Effects

Chair: D.L. Kelly, INEL

Surves anl Evaluation of Aging Risk Assessment Methods and Applications
D. Sanzo. P. Kvam (LANL); G. Apostolakzs, J.W. Wu, T. Milici N. Ghoniem, S. Guarro (ASC4)

Development of High Temperature Metallic Melting Processes Related to the Detritiation of Exhausted Control Rods
G. Modico, fI. Dworschag F. Mannone (CEC-JRC, Ispra); R. Nannicini (ENEA)

Use ot Sensitivity Analysis in Selection of Upgrades for Low Seismic Capacity Components for the Advanced Test Reactor
S. T. Khencha, SA. Atkinson (INEL); D.M. Henry (Tenera); M.K. Ravindra (EQE IntL)

043 Risk Communication to Professionals

Chair: A.S. Heger, U. New Mexico

How Shall We Measure the Reliability Perforrnance of a Safety System?
P. Hokstad (SIN1E )

The Use or Risk Contours to Clarify Risk Communication
T.E. Fen.stermacher (PLG); J.T. Kopecek (Union Oil of Calif:)

Improvlng NRC Staff Uses of Risk Assessment
M A. Cunningham, P. Baranowsly, W. Beckner, P. Rathbun (USNRC)

044 Uncertainties and Sensitivities in Physical and Chemical Phenomenology--Radiological Source Terms

Chair: E.J. Bonano, Beta Corp. Intl.

Uncertalntles and Sensitivities in Aerosol Calculations - An Analysis of a FIPLOC-M Application to the Experiment VANAM-M2
E. Hofer. B. Krzykac7, J. Langhans, G. Weber (GRS, FRG)

Analysis of Source Terrn Uncertainty Issues for LWRs
K Kuratnatsu (JAERI)

Source Term Analysis for High Level Waste Storage Accidents
S. Medhekar, J. Kindinger (PLG); D. MacFarlane (LANL)

045 Interactive Fault Detection and Diagnosis -Applications

Chair: M. Modarres, U. Maryland

Applicatlons of Pattern Recognition Techniques to Online Fault Detection
R.M. Singer, KC. Gross, R.W. King (ANL)

Principal Factor Analysis of the Reactor Coolant Pump System r
W.S. Grenzebach (Applied Mgmt. Consultants); TJ. Marx (Manc Soc. Sci Res.)

FlowSim/FlowRisk - A Code System for Studying Risk Associated with Material Process Flows
A.M. Kaufrnan (LLNL)

046 Methods for Uncertainty Analysis (I)

Chair: J. Devooght, U. Libre Bruxelles

A New Approach to the Uncertainty Evaluation in Risk Assessment
P. Cecchell4 M. Marini (U. Pisa)

Uses of Zero-One Sampling in Probabilistic Risk Assessment
A. Camp (SNL)

Coherent Sampling of Multiple Branch Event Tree Questions
A.C. Payne Jr., G.D. Wyss (SNL)

Analysis of Extreme Top Event Frequency Percentiles Based on Fast Probability Integration
B. StapZe (SNL); F.E. Hashn (U. New Mexico)

047 Enhancing Safety Culture in Modern Industry

Chair: J. Philley, NUS

Safetv Culture: What is it, and How can it be Developed?
D.S. Barnes, SA. Brearley (AEA Consultancy Services, UK)

Safety Culture and its Reflection in Job and Organizational Design: Total Safety Management
G. Grote, C. Kdnzler (ETH-Zentrum, Switzerland)

Assessing Organizational Impact on Reactor Safety
W.G. He (PLG)

Concept Safety Review of a Sociotechnical System
G. Wells, C. Phnag (U. of Shel7ield, England)

Managing Human Induced Risk Involving Technological Systems and Processes
TG Ryan, L.T. Ostrom, D.I. Gertman (INEL)

048 Risk Assessment of Industrial Facilities

Chair: N. Sankaran, UNOCAL

Quantltative Risk Assessment of the Los Alamos National Laboratory TA-55 Plutonium Facilitv
M.K. Sasser, D. Sanzo (LANL)

Quantltative Risk Analysis of a Butane Storage Facility
L.F.S. Oliveira, J.DA. Netto, RA. Pinto (PRINCIPL4 Ltda.~ Brazil); J.CA. Lima (PETROBRAS, Branl)

049 External Events

Chair: S.T. Khericha, INEL

Site-Wide Seismic Risk Model for Savannah River Site Nuclear Facilities
S.A. Eide, R.S. Shay (LATA); W.S. Durant (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

Tornado Impact Analysis for Use in Quantitative Risk Assessments
J. Shah (Four Elements Ltd.)

Aircraft Crash Analysis of the Proposed Sizewell B Containment Vessel
Y.F Al-Obaid (PAAfTX Kuwait)

050 Risk Management in DOE (III)

Chair: R.R. Fllllwood, BNL

Fully Integrated Risk Management
R J. Dovle, K Beierschmitt, (Battelle Pantex)

051 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant--Regulations, Methodology, Modeling and Results

Chair: D.R. Anderson, SNL

Organization of Performance Assessments Conducted for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
J.C. Helton (Arrrona St. U); D.R. Anderson, M.G. Marietta (SNL)

Using Data and Information to Form Distributions of Model Parameters in Stochastic Simulatlons of Performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)
M.S. Tierney (SNL)

Modeling Svstem Used for the Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)
M.G. Mariett4 M.S. Tierney (SNL); J.C. Helton (Arizona St. U.)

Regulatory and Institutional Considerations in Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolatlon Piiot Plant (WIPP)
D.R. Anderson, M.G. Marietta (SNL)

052 Software Dependability (II)

Chair: R. Mulvihill, PRC

The Dvnamlc Flowgraph Methodology: A Methodology for Assessing Embedded System Software Safety
C. Garren. M. Yau, S. Guarro, G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

Determining the Prime Implicants for Multi-State Embedded Systems
E. J Shlelds, G. ApostolalEs, SS. Guarro (UCLA)

053 Expert Judgment in Assessment Studies

Chair: M~A. Cunningham, USNRC

An Applicatlon of ISPA: Sensitivity Analysis on Complex Engineering Problem
P. McClure, S. Clement, S. Ashbaugh (SAIC)

The Analysls of Competing Failure Modes
R.M. Cooke (Delft U. Technol.)

Practical Problems in Aggregating Expert Opinions
J.M. Booker, R.R. Picard, MA. Meyer (LANZ)

An Application of Expert Opinions Approach in Combining Measurement Results
M. Haim, M. Jaeger, D. TzZony (RAFAEL, IsraeE)

054 HRA, the Second Generation (I)

Chair: P.C. Cacciabue, JRC

Some I houghts on the Requirements for a Second Generation Human Reliability Assessment Process
A.J. Spurgin

The Need for, and a Proposed Structure of, a Second Generation HRA
G.W Parrv (NUS)

055 Instrumentation and Control Reliability

Chair: R. Roberts, Ultramar

Reliabllitv-Based Design of a Safety-Critical Automation System - A Case Study
C. W Carroll (Boeing); W. Dunn (USC); L. Doty, M. Hulet (NASA); M.V. Frank (Safety Factor .4ssoc.)

Safeguards Actuation Fault Tree Analysis
M. Cepinq M. Kozuh, B. Mavko (J. Stefan Inst.)

Reliabllits Assessment of Onsite Emergency Safety Buses at Operating Nuclear Power Plants
G. Marnnez-Guridi MA. Azarm (BNL)

Optimal Voting Logic of Hydrocarbon Gas Detectors Based on Field Data
L. Bodsberg (SINTEF)

056 Risk Communication

Chair: RA. Bari BEL

Risk Assessment - Working with Your Client
KG. .ldurphy, J.E. Fitzgerald, Jr. (DOE)

057 Resource Planning and Value-Impact Applications

Chair: K Klein, USDOE

Environment Safety & Health Risk Management: Program Planning and Budget Decision Making XI
F.F. Tooper (USDOE); J.L. Von Herrmann (CYCLA)

Control Operator Overload: Identification and Prevention
DA. Stronhar (Beville Eng.)

Probabilistie Cost-Benefit Analysis of Enhanced Safety Features for Strategic Nuclear Weapons at a Representative Location
D.R. Stephens. C.H. Hall, G.S. Holman, KF. Graham, T.F. Harvey, FJD. Serduke (TINL)

058 Examples of PRA in Design Decisions

Chair: B. Buchbinder, NASA

Examples of the Use of PSA in the Design Process and to Support Modifications at Two Research Reactors
D.H. Johnson D.C. Bley, J.C. Lin (PLG); C.T. Ramsey, MA. Linn (ORNL)

Risk Manazement and Corrective Actions
RA. DYkes, AS. Dykes (PLG); J.D. Blodgett (Hughes)

A Risk and Decision Analysis for Choosing Wind Tunnel Turbine Blade Strategies
M. V Frank S A. Epstein (Safety Factor Assoc.)

Investigation Into the Development of A Train-Level Probabilistic Risk Assessment
C L. SmitE. R.D. Fowler, LX Wolfram (INEL)

059 lise of PRA Models in Assessing Technologies and Device Applications

Chair: M. Zentner, Westinghouse Hanford

The Use of Robotics and Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Environmental Restoration
L.E. CLnaet G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

Risk Evaluation of Medical and Industrial Radiation Devices
E.D. Jone.< (LLNL), R.E. Cunningham, PA. Rathhun (USNRC)

Integratea Svstems Performance Assessment
C.F Amos S.D. Clement (SAIC)

060 HRA, the Second Generation (II)

Chair: E. Hollnagel, Compurer Resources Intl.

Rellabllitv of Cognition, Context and Data for a Second Generation HRA
E. Hollnagel (HRA, UK); P.C. Cacciabue (CEC/JRC, Italy)

Elements Of A Model of Operator Problem Solving and Decision Making in Abnormal Conditions
S-H. Shen C. Smidts, A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Human Reliability Analysis Using Simulated Human Model
Y Fujita, I.Yanagisswa (MAPI, Japan); H. Sakuda (NUPEC/IHF, Japan)

061 Transportation Risk (I)

Chair: T. Altenbach, LLNL

lshe Cost Jf Human Error Intervention
C.T. Benne; W.W. Banks, E.D. Jones (LLNL)

Application of the DOE and NRC Nuclear Safety Policy to Transportation Operations
C.Y. Kzmura (LLNL), G.M. Sandquist (U. Utah)

Control ot Risk from Explosives Stores Within Mod (UF )
J. Connor, D. Hewkin (Ministry of Defence, UK)

062 Environmental Risk Management -Waste

Chair: C. Peabody, USDOIF

The Role of NIultimedia, Multi-Pathway Exposure Assessments in Risk-Based Regulations at California Hazardous Wastes Sites
T.E. UcKone ([ [NL), E.G. Butler, JJ. Wong (CaliB Dept. Toxic Substances Control)

Risk Analvsis for New Nuclear Waste Sites - Will It Generate Public Acceptance?
H. Inhater (Westinghouse Savannah River)

063 Methods for Uncertainty Analysis (II)

Chair: A. Camp, SNL

Development of Smart Searching Algorithms for Vulnerability and Uncertainty Analysis in Probabilistic Risk Assessments
A.S. Benjamin (SNL)

Importance and Sensitivity Analysis in Assessing the System Reliability
Y-F. Wu fTaiwan Power Co.)} JD. Lewins (Cambridge U.)

Multiple Weight Stepwise Regression
J. Atkis (UC Berkeley); J. Campbell (SNL)

A Software System for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Results from -X Computer Models .
B. Krzvkacz E. Hofer, M. Kloos (GRS)

064 Risk Based Prioritization

Chair: G.E. Cummings, LLNL

PrioritizmP Risk-Reducing Activities: Integrating Risk Management Into Business Planning
D Brooks (Anzona St. U)

An Integrated Resource Management System and the Risk-Based Prioritization Model in Use at Martin Marietta Energy Systems 3
M.l Sparks (Martm Marietta)

Risk-Based Prioritization: A Comparison of Approaches
R.S. Strail (I[NL)

065 Meaning and Interpretation of Probability

Chair: A. Mosleh, U. Maryland

The Meaning and Use of Probability in Probabilistic Safety Assessment
G.W Parrw (1fUS)

Is Probabilitv of Frequency Too Narrow?
H.F Marn (LANL)

On Bayesian Approaches of Parametric and Modeling Uncertainty
J.S. Wu (A,SCA)

On The ObJectivity of Subjective Theory of Probability for PSA Applications
A .ltlosleh (U Maryland)

066 Cognitive Modeling and Simulation in Human Reliability Analysis

Chair: Y. Fujita, Mitsubishi Atomic Pwr. Ind

A Simulation Study of Errors of Commission in Nuclear Accidents
K-S fI.sueh KNUS); L. Soth (Commonwealth Ed.); A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Slmulating Operator Cognition for Risk Analysis: Current Models and CREWSIM
V.Ci. Dang (MI-I); N.O. Siu (INEL)

Quantlfication of Multiple Error Expressions in Following Ernergency Operating Procedures in Nuclear Power Plant Control Room
A.P Hacwan, P.S. Wieringa (Delft U. Technol.); A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

067 C omparative Risk Assessment of Complex Technological Systems (I)

Chair: S. Haddad, New South Wales Govt.

Severe Accidents in Comparative Assessment of Energy Sources: Current Issues and Actual Experience Data
S Hirschberg, C. Parl›vantzas (P. Scherrer Inst., Switzerland)

Analysis of Electricity Generation Health Risks: A United Kingdom Perspective
D.J. BalE L.RJ. Roberts, A.CD. Simpson (U. EastAnglia, England)

External Costs as an Indicator for Comparative Risk Assessment of Different Energy Systems - A Case Study for Comparing the Nuclear and the Coal Fuel Cycle
W. Krewitt P. Mayerhofer, R. Friedrich, A. Grefimann (U. Stuttgart, Germany); M. Dreicer (CEPN France)

The lSse of .NIulti-Attribute Analysis for Comparing the Health and Environmental Impacts of Dlfferent Fuel Cycles - A Feasibility Study for the Comparison Between Coal and Nuclear Fuel Cvcles
M. Drelcer, P Kuentzmann, T. Schneider (CEPN, France); W. Krewitt (U. Stuttgart, Germany)

068 Risk Assessment Failure Data Estimation

Chair: C. Fleming, PLG
Advanced Test Reactor Large LOCA Frequency Estimation
S.T Khericha (INEL); S~A. Eide (LATA)

Component Failure Rate Comparison and Recommendations for Various Processing Fluids
L.C. Cadwallader, J.N. Wilkinson (INEL); SA. Eide (LATA)

Application of Reliability-Centered-Maintenance to PRA Fault Tree Analysis for a BWR HPCI Svstem
MA. Feltus YA. Choi (Penn. St. U)

069 Waste Risk Management

Chair: B. Thompson, H.M. Insp. Polluiion

The HMIP Research and Development Programme for Post-Closure Risk Assessment
B. Thompson (IIMIP, UKJ )

Risk Analvsis In Regulation and Risk Communication
S.M. Stearn (HMIP, UK)

Validatlon: What Should a Regulator Look for in a Safety Case?
R.D. Wilmot, D.A. Galson (Galson Sciences, England)

Aspects of Review of a Proponent's Post-Closure Safety Assessment on Behalf of the Regulator
T.J. Sumerling (Safety Assessment Mgt.); D. Read (WS Atkins Sci & TechnoL)

070 Reactor PSA Studies

Chair: M. Hitchler, Westznghouse Savannah Rvr.

Probabillstlc Safety Analysis of Ignalina NPP, RBMK-1500
G. Johansson (IPS); E. Shiverskly (IPE); E. Soderman (ES-Konsult)

Results and Insights from the Low Power and Shutdown Level 1 PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Power Station
D.W. Whitehead, B D. Staple, S.L.Daniel (SNL); J. Darby (Sci. & Eng. Assoc.); J. Yakle, S. Miller J Forester (SAIC)

Comparatlve Evaluation of the Performance of Advanced Semi-Passive Pressurized Water Reactors in the Loss of Offsite Power Event
M. Ouyang, M. Golay (MIT)

071 Accident Precurssors

Chair: V.M. Bier, U. Wisc.-Madison

Accident Sequence Precursor Methodology for Maritime Safety
L.H.J. Goossens (Delft U. Technol.); C.C. Glansdorp (MarineAnalytics)

Developing Organizational Safety Information System for Monitoring Potential Dangers
M. Tamuz (U. Texas)

The Perfoxmance of Precursor-Based Estimator
V.M. Bier W. Yi (U. Wisc.)

072 Aging Analysis: Methodology & Applications

Chair: D.H. Johnson, PLG

Sensltivit) and Uncertainty Analyses in Aging Risk-Based Prioritizations
M. Hassan, S. Uryas'ev (BNL); W.E. Vesely (SAIC)

Bayesian Aging Analysis of Hanford Waste Storage Tank Leak
W.G. He. S.B. Rao (PLG); DR. MacFarlane (LANL)

Lifetlme Prediction and Physical Asset Management
R. Vlenich (FailureAnalysisAssoc.)

073 Human Reliability Applications and Models

Chair: S. Kondo, Tokyo Univ.

Human Reliabilitv Analysis for Surry Midloop Operations
J.C. Lin, D.C. Bley, D.H. Johnson (PLG); T-L. Chu (BNL)

Enhanclng Conditions for Correct Human Actions at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant in Lithuania
P. Holmgren (RELCON)

Human Error Model Development for Savannah River Site Nonreactor Facilities
R.E. Vazl, H.C. Benhardt, J.E. Held, L.M. Olsen (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.); SA. Eide (LA TA)

Benchmarking an Automated Human Error Analysis Technique
J. Wilson, P. Cloutier, S. Fogarty (Westinghouse Idaho NucL)

Assessrnent of Dependence of Human Errors in Test and Maintenance Activities
L. Reiman (STUK, Finland)

074 Comparative Risk Assessment of Complex Technological Systems (II)

Chair: S. Hirschberg, P. Scherrer Inst.

Comparative Assessment of the Health and Environmental Impacts of Various Energy Systems from Severe Accidents: Issues in Review
A. V Gheorghe (ETH, Switzerland)

Consideration of Probabilistic Safety Objectives in OECD/NEA Member Countries
M.F Versteeg (NucL Safety Insp., Netherlands)

Risk Assessment of Large Industrial Complexes in Eastern Europe: A Comparative Prospective
A. V Gheorghe (ETH, Switzerland)

075 Fire Risk Analysis for Enineered Systems

Chair: R. Friedman, NASA Lewis *3

Risk Analysis of Environmental Hazards at the High Flux Beam Reactor
J.L. Boccio (BNL), V.S. Ho, D.H. Johnson (PLG)

A Model fol Fuel Fire Duration and Application to the B-1B Bomber
D.E Magnoli (LENL)

Irnpiementation of the FIVE Methodology: Results and Lessons Learned
R.C. Llnd4uist M.S. Powell (Arizona Pub. Serv.)

Fire Risk Assessments at Rocky F^lats Plant
T.L. Foppe, E. Stahlnecker (EC&G Rocky Flats)

076 Risk-Based Regulation (I)

Chair: V. Joksimovich, Accident Preveniion Group

Application and Extension of Formal Decision-Making Methods to Generic Safety Issue Decislons
M.P Bohn (SNL)

Risk-Based Regulation Using REVEAL
H. DezJ J. Meyer (SCIENTECH); M. Modarres (U. Maryland), H. Specter (RBR Conslts. )

078 Process Safety Management

Chair: R.L. Cummings, Interstate Assessment Technologies

Integrating Compliance Efforts for Process Safety Management Regulations
D.A. Moore (Primatech)

OSEA PSM: Impact on Accident/Lncident Investigation
D.A. Wetzel, S. Hall (Wetzel, Herron & Drucker); R.E. Rimlaws, J.C. Clark (Rimkus ConsuSlng)

079 Impact of Different PRA Methodologies on the Results of Nuclear Power Plant PSAs (I)

Chair: F.R. Hubbard, FRH

Risk Assessment Impacts on Risk Management
K.I. Kiper (N. Atlantic Energy Service)

Comparison of PRA Event Tree Approaches - Some Thoughts and Reflections
D.M. Rasmuson (USNRC)

On Encountering Small Numbers: How Good Models Go Bad
D.C. Bley, D.H. Johnson (PLG)

Compieteness and Complexity of PSA: Do They Need it?
A.D. Chambardel, L. Magne (EDF, France)

080 Understanding Organization Factors Through Risk Models

Chair: J.H. Gittus, British Nuclear Industry Forum

An Approach for Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Human Reliability Analysis in PRAs
P. Moieni DD. Orvts (Accident Prevention Grp.)

The Work Process Analysis Model (WPAM): An Integrated Approach to the Incorporation of Organizational Performance into Probabilistic Safety Methodology
K. Davoudiam J-S. Wl(, G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

Risk Assessment - Including the "CHAOS" Factor
C. T. Kletner (C. T.K Enterprises); R.L. Cummings (Interstate Assessment Tech.)

081 DOE Safety Studies

Chair: R.E. Halt BNL

An SAR Issue for the Savannah River Reactors Resolved with PRA Methods
S. V. Topp (Westinghouse Savannah Svr.)

Evaluation of Replacement Tritum Facility (RIT) Compliance with DOE Safety Goals Using Probabilistic Consequence Assessment Methodology (U)
K.R. O'Kula, J.M. East, M.L. Moore (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

Fault Tree Gnalysis on the F&H Canyon Exhaust Systems at the Savannah River Site
J.M. Low K Marshall (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

082 Fires, Floods, and Spatial Interactions

Chair: R. Oehlberg, EPRI

Ferrnl Internal Flood Analysis Using a Component-Based Frequency Calculation Approach
J.C Lin Y.M. ffiIou (PLG); J.V. Ramirez, E.M. Page (DetroitEdison)

Advances in the Methodology for the Analysis of Location-Dependent Hazards for Probabilistie Risk Assessment (PRA)
J.K. Lzming, LA. Bennett (ERIN Eng. & Res.)

Location Transforrnation for Identification and Screening of Internal Fire and Flood Scenarios
T.A. Thatcher J.L. Jones (INEL); SA. Eide (LATA)

EPRI Fire Events Database
K. Bateman, M. Marteeny, B. Najaf, B. Parkinson (SAIC); R. Oehlberg (EPRI)

083 Environmental Restoration Decision Support System

Chair: D. Rice, LLNL

Application of Decision Support Systems to Environmental Restoration Processes
D.W. Rice, J. Ziagos (LLNL); D. Bell (UCLA)

The SEDSS - A Risk Assessment Based Decision Support Tool
R. Knowlton Jr., E. Webb (SNL)

Envlronmental Decision Support Systems
J. Coleman (USEPA); J. Franco, W. Wee (U. Cincinnati)

084 Reliability Based Design in Structural Engineering

Chair: D. Frangopol, U. Colorado

Time-Dependent Reliability of Rock-Anchored Structrues
M. Chakravorty, J.E. Pytte, D.M. Frangopol (U. Colorado); R.L. Mosher (USAE Wuterways Exp. Station)

Reliabllity Analysis of Redundant Structures by Response Surface Method
Y. Murotsuw S. Shao (U. Osaka, Japan); N. Chibu (KawasaAa Heavy Ind*, Japan)

Risk Analvsis of Pipeline Systems Based on Structural Reliability Models
M. Sinisa G.U. Uguccioni M. Tominez (SIAF, Italy)

085 Transportation Risk (II)

Chair: M. Kazarians, Kazarians & Assoc.

A Zone Model for Determining Atmospheric Contaminant Transport Aboard Human-Crewed Spacecraft
S. Jones M. Paut F. Issacci I. Catton, G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

Commerclal Space Transportation Regulation: An Evolution in Risk Management
R.K. Gress, D.E. Lang (USDOT)

System Safety Management in the UK Air Trafflc Services
R. Profit (Natl. Air Traffic Services)

086 Impact of Different PRA Methodologies on the Results of Nuclear Power Plant PSAs (II)

Chair: J.H. Bicket INEL

The Search for Dependencies or How Could Two Current Design Nuclear Power Plants Produce IPE Results Three Orders of Magnitude Different?
F.R. Hubbard (FRH); A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Impact of Methodology and Design Changes on Turkey Point IPE Results
C.N. Gue\ WA.Skelley (Florida Pwr. & Lt.)

087 Causal Factors in Human Reliability: Experiments and Databases

Chair: AS. Dykes, PLG

On the Use of Data Collected During Crew Reliability Experiments at PAKS Nuclear Power Plant - Status Report
A.Bareith. Z. Karsa (Inst. for Electnc Pwr. Res.); A J. Spurgin; I. Kiss (Nucl. Pwr. Plt. of Paks); L. Izso (Tech. U. Budapest)

Causal Identification of Human Errors Towards Intelligent CAI System for Plant Operation
Y. Furuham4 K Furuta, S. Kondo (U. Tokyo)

Development of a Human Error Data Bank
S.E. Tavlor-Adams, B. Kirwan (U. Birmingham, England)

Causal Factors of Operator Unreliability: An Application of Simulator Data
D. Orvis, P. Moieni (Accident Prevention Grp.); AJ. Spurgin

088 fRisk Based Methods for Reliability/Availability/Maintainability

Chair: S. Lydersen, Norwegian Inst. TechnoL

Some New Measures of Reliability Importance with Applications to Reliability Centred Maintenance
S. Lvdersen (Norwegian Inst. TechnoL)

"INlwEGRIT' - A Parametric Reliability and Maintainability Methodology and Safety Risk Managemenl Tool
R. Vote. T Barritt, R. Blanchford (ELINTECH)

On-Llne VS. Off-Line Maintenance in Nuclear Power Plants - Insights from a Cycle-Wide O&.~ St Model
J.R. Hewitt. LA. Bennett, R.L. Durling (ERIN Eng. & Res.)

A User-Friendly Program for System and Component Availability Monitoring and Its Potenual Application in Maintenance Rule Implementation
D.M. Kapinus (commonwealth Edison); TA. Petersen (NUS)

089 Seismic Risk Analysis

Chair: DA. Moore, Primatech

The Experimental Breeder Reactor II Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment
J. Rogians DJ. Hill (ANL)

Seismic Risk .Uanagement Using Earthquake Injury Epidemiology
P.J. Amlco TA. IIaley, SJ. Krill (SAIC)

090 Risk Based Regulation (II)

Chair: G. Apostolakis, UCLA

Regulatory Decision Making by Decision Analysis
J. Holzberg, U. Pulklanen (Tech. Res. Ctr. Finland); L. Reirnan, R. Virolainen (Finnish Ctr. for Radiat. & Nucl. Sap

Application of Risk-Based Priortization to QA Requirements
F.J. Rahr; W. ParlEnson (EPRI); G.D. Bouchey (SAIC); M. Meisner (Entergy Operations)

091 Management Issues

Chair: D. Cunha, Northrop Corp.

"Risk Index" - A Proposed Concept
S. Chakraborty (Swiss Fed Nucl. Saf: Insp.); C. Preyssl (European Space Agency)

The Quality Issues of Technologic Risk Assessment
B.O.Y. Lydell (RSA Technologies)

092 Industrial and Transportation Risks

Chair: D. Henneke, TENERA

The ARIPGR Project: Analysis of the Industrial and Transportation Risk Connected with the Ravenna Area
D. Egidi (Civil Protection, Emilia Romagna Region); F. Foraboschi G. Spadoni (U. Bologna); A. Amendola (CEC-JRC)

Identification and Evaluation of Maritime Exposures
J.L. Borrello, MJ. Spansel (Adams & Reese)

A Declsior Model of a Multi-Point Mooring of a Tanker with a Tug Assist
M.L. Eskijian (Calif: St. Lands Commis.)

093 Time Dependence of Equipment Failure Rates-Models, Data, and Impacts on System Modeling

Chair: D. Bley, PLG

On a Class of Dependent Failures
I.A. Papazoglou (National Center for Scientiflc Research, Greece)

Statistical l reatment of Time and Demand-Related Failures in the Nordic Reliability Data Book (T-Book)
K. Porn (Studsvik Eco & Safe)

Derivatlon Df Time Dependent Component Unavailability Models and Application to Nordic PSAs
M. Knochenhauer (Logistoca Consult.); G. Johanson (Ind. Process Safety)

094 Applications of Human Reliability Analysis

Chair: D.I. Gertman, INEL

HRA for Explosive Ordinance Disposal
L.N. Haney, R.G. Peatross, D.I. Gertman (INEL)

Nuclear Case Study for A SGTR Sequence
D.I. Gertman WJ. Reece, M.B. Calley, C.L. Smith (INEL)

Insights Intc Pilot Situation Awareness Using Verbal Protocol Analysis
H. Blacbnan, C. Sullivan, K Seidler (INEL)

095 Risk Methods for Defense Applications

Chair: M. V. Frank Safety Factor Assoc.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Weapon-Systems Fleld-Testing: Accounting for System's Complexily and Unfamiliarity
S. Feller, M. Mahank (RAFAEL, Israel)

Nuclear Weapon System Risk Assessment
D.D. Carlson (SNL)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Disassembly Procedures
D.A. O'Brien, T.R. Bement, B.C. Letellier (LANL)

096 Risk Communication to the Public

Chair: M.E. Pate-Cornell, Stanford U

EffectlvelR Communicating Risk to the Public and to Regulators: Can It Be Accomplished?
G.M. Piiie G. T. Croxton (Adams & Reese)

Effectivelx Communicating Risk Assessments to the Public
C. Lambert M. McDaniel (UNOCAL); S. Sanfos (FOCUS Grp.)

097 Broad Risk Perspectives Within the DOE Weapon Complex

Chair: H.P. Alesso, LLNL

A Global ()verview of Risk Management of the DOE Complex
H.P. Alesso KC. Majumdar (LLNL)

The Integration of Human Factors into the Risk Assessment of a Nuclear Device Arming and Firing System
T. A1tenbach, W. FerreU (LLNL)

A Method for Determining Risk to Ground Facilities form Aircraft Accidents
C.Y. Kimuraw C. T. Bennett (LLNL)

098 Risk Management - International Space Applications

Chair: C. Preyssl, European Space Agency

Risk Assessment - The European Space Agency Approach
C. Preys. l (European Space Agency)

Risk Management of the Japanese Experiment Module on Space Station Freedom
J.C Lin, D.II. Johnson, W.R. Fuller (PLG); K Sakata, H. Suabd, S. Kofirna (Mitsubishi Atomic Pwr. Ind, Japan); H. Himeno (Mitsubishi Heavy Ind, Japan)

Rocky the Rover: PRA Meets ET
M. V. Frank Sa4. Epstein, AJ. Spurgin (Safety Factor Assoc.)

099 Root Cause and Precursor Analysis

Chair: M.G.K Evans, NUS

The Barseback Incident - A Precursor Challenging Fundamental Safety Principles of LWRs
L. Carlsson, S. Erixon, C. Karlsson, B. Liwang, J. Olsen (SK7); G. Johanson (Ind Proc. Saf.)

Inferrmg Safety Trend From The Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis Program
M. Modarres (U. Maryland)

Estlmating the Frequency of Electrical Overload Events in the Proposed Space Station
T. Paulos, F. Issacci, I. Catton, G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

100 Reducing Errors through Quality and Design

Chair: T.G. Ryan, INEL

The Pros and Cons of Using Human Reliability Analysis Techniques to Analyze Misadmlnistration Events
L.T. Ostrom (INEL)

Constructior Error and Human Reliability for Structural Systems
M.G. Stewart (U. Newcastle)

The Feasibllity of Designing Human-Error Backup Systems for Fail-Safe Structures
Y. Sazo (Tokvo U.); K Inoue (Kyoto W)

A Methodoiogy to Support Space System Designer in Minimizing Human Error
M. Ferranze, C. Vivalda (Alenia Spazio); C. Fogli (ESA/ESTEC)

101 Risk Assessment of Nuclear Waste Storage and Processing

Chair: D. Stact IBL

PSA Results for Hanford High-Level Waste Tank 101-SY
D.R. MacFarlane, T.F. Bott, L.F. Brown, D.W. StacJc (LANL); J. Kindinger, R.K Deremer, S.R. Medhekar, TJ. Milsschl (PLG)

102 Fire Risk

Chair: V. Ho, PLG

Development of the Fire Risk Analysis Methodology for Nuclear Power Plants
T. Matsaoka K Miyazaki (Ship Res. Inst., Japan); M. Kondo (JAERI, Japan)

A Melhodology for Quantifying Fire Risk On-Board Spacecraft
K.R. Paasn, F Issacci G. Apostolakis, I. Catron (UCL4)

103 Risk-Based Regulation (III)

Chair: F. Rahn, EPRI

Where Do We Go from Here in U.S. Nuclear Safety Regulation?
V. Joksimovich (Accident Prevennon Grp.)

The Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Satisfaction of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Maintenance Rule
R.M. DuBord, M.W. Golay (GE Nuclear Energy); N.C. Rasmussen (MIT)

The Benericial Use of Risk Analysis in the Regulatory Process
M.V. Bonaca, DW4. Dube, S.D. Weerakiody (Northeast Uiilities Serv.)

104 Industrial Risk Management - An EEC Perspective

Chair: D.M. Karydas, Factory Mutual Res. Corp.

Induslnal Risk Management: An EEC Perspective
A. Amendola (CEC-JRC, Ispra)

Plant Level Hazard Identification Based on Functional Models
J. Suokas (V7T, Finland)

Declsion Making in Process Design - Assessment of Total Safety by Aggregating the Safeties of the Subparts of the Process
R. Koivisto (VTT, Finland), VJ. Pohjola, M.K Alha (U. Oulu, Finland) Short Cut Risk Assessment G. Wells (U. Sheffield, UK); S. Allurn (Bownng Marsh & McLennan, UK)

105 Environmental Risk Management--Restoration

Chair: T.E. McKone, LLNL

Scope Definition for the Hanford Tank Farms PRA
J.P. Kindlnger (PLG), D.W. StacAc (LANL)

Risk Management Applications at the INEL for Advanced Test Reactor Operations and Safety and Environmental Restoration and Waste Management
S.A. Atkinson, RL. Nitschlce (INEL)

Decision Analysis in Environmental Risk Management: Evaluating Multiple Stakeholder/Multiple Objective Decisions
D.C. BelL G. Apostolahs, W.E. Kastenberg (UCLA)

106 Data Collection and Evaluation

Chair: D. Croucher, EG&G Rocky Flats

Risk Assessment Data Banks at the Savannah River Site (U)
C.S. Townsend, W.S. Durant, D.F. Baughman (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

Data Worth Analysis for Performance Assessment Using Influence Diagrams
J.E. White (INTERA), A.S. Heger (U. New Mexico)

Integrated Risk Management Database Systems
H. Wilhiie J.R. Pearson (CYCLA)

107 Organizational Factors and Nuclear Power Plant Safety

Chair: K Dahlgren, Swedish Nucl. Pwr. Insp.

Organizational Factors and Nuclear Power Plant Safety: A Process Oriented Approach
K. Dahlgren (SNPI, Sweden); J. Olson (Battelle)

Organizational Assessment of a Maintenance Department at a Nuclear Power Plant
L. Reunan (STUK, Finland), L. Norros (VIT, Finland)

Evaluation of Quality Systems
I.Blom (SNPI, Sweden), B. Melber} N. Durbin (Battelle)

Two Solutions to the Same Problem - Assessing Processes and Their Outcomes
G. Svensson (SEPI, Sweden)

108 Interactive Fault Detection and Diagnosis--Approaches

Chair: A. Poucer, ITER EDA

Development of Diagnosis Systems of Autonomous Operation System for Nuclear Power Plants
A. Saikz K Okusa, A. Endou (PR& NFD Corp., Japan)

A Unifiec Paradigm for Verifying Reliability Requirements in Dynamic Systems
J. Ruiz, M.Roush (U. Maryland)

Towards .I Toxanomy of System Failures
J. Ruiz, M. Modarres (U. Maryland)

Return to PSAM-II?